[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2092},["ShallowReactive",2],{"site-chrome-en":3,"site-chrome-th":-1,"blog-posts-en":287,"article-blog-en-\u002Fblog\u002Fbayesian-budget-allocation-for-marketplace-ads":654,"blog-page-en":1984,"blog-categories-en":2036,"og-copy-en":2049,"og-posts-en-none":2091},{"id":4,"extension":5,"footer":6,"header":116,"indexFacets":202,"meta":243,"notFound":244,"stem":250,"ui":251,"__hash__":286},"chrome_en\u002Fen\u002Fchrome.yml","yml",{"columns":7,"legal":83,"quote":84,"askAi":87,"socials":103},[8,29,47,65],{"label":9,"children":10},"Product",[11,14,17,20,23,26],{"label":12,"to":13},"Ads optimization","\u002Fblog\u002Fads-optimization",{"label":15,"to":16},"Unit economics","\u002Fblog\u002Fprofit-margin",{"label":18,"to":19},"Agentic KAM","https:\u002F\u002Flearn.dataglasslabs.com\u002Fdocs\u002Fai-and-api\u002Fassistants",{"label":21,"to":22},"One-click deploy","https:\u002F\u002Flearn.dataglasslabs.com\u002Fdocs\u002Fgrowth\u002Factions\u002Faction-flow",{"label":24,"to":25},"Integrations","https:\u002F\u002Flearn.dataglasslabs.com\u002Fdocs\u002Foverview\u002Fget-started\u002Fsupported-platforms",{"label":27,"to":28},"Pricing","\u002Fpricing",{"label":30,"children":31},"Resources",[32,35,38,41,44],{"label":33,"to":34},"Blog","\u002Fblog",{"label":36,"to":37},"Customer stories","\u002Fcustomers",{"label":39,"to":40},"Research","\u002Fresearch",{"label":42,"to":43},"Glossary","\u002Fglossary",{"label":45,"to":46},"Docs","https:\u002F\u002Flearn.dataglasslabs.com\u002Fdocs",{"label":48,"children":49},"Company",[50,53,56,59,62],{"label":51,"to":52},"About","\u002Fcompany",{"label":54,"to":55},"Contact","\u002Fcontact",{"label":57,"to":58},"Book a demo","\u002Fbook-a-demo",{"label":60,"to":61},"Privacy","\u002Flegal\u002Fprivacy",{"label":63,"to":64},"Terms","\u002Flegal\u002Fterms",{"label":66,"children":67},"DataGlass for",[68,71,74,77,80],{"label":69,"to":70},"Agencies","\u002Ffor\u002Fagencies",{"label":72,"to":73},"Brands","\u002Ffor\u002Fbrands",{"label":75,"to":76},"Planners and optimizers","\u002Ffor\u002Fplanners",{"label":78,"to":79},"Managers and analysts","\u002Ffor\u002Fmanagers",{"label":81,"to":82},"Sellers and shop owners","\u002Ffor\u002Fsellers","© 2026 DataGlass Labs. All rights reserved.",{"text":85,"caption":86},"Measure what you keep, and then grow what you measure.","The DataGlass team",{"label":88,"prompt":89,"assistants":90},"Ask AI about DataGlass","I want to understand DataGlass, a decision engine for Shopee, Lazada and TikTok Shop sellers that optimizes ads, pricing and promotions for true profit. Use web search to read their website at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.dataglasslabs.com (with an agent-readable summary at https:\u002F\u002Fwww.dataglasslabs.com\u002Fllms.txt), then explain what DataGlass does, who it is for and how it differs from an analytics dashboard.",[91,95,99],{"label":92,"icon":93,"url":94},"ChatGPT","chatgpt","https:\u002F\u002Fchatgpt.com\u002F?prompt={prompt}",{"label":96,"icon":97,"url":98},"Claude","claude","https:\u002F\u002Fclaude.ai\u002Fnew?q={prompt}",{"label":100,"icon":101,"url":102},"Perplexity","perplexity","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.perplexity.ai\u002Fsearch?q={prompt}",[104,108,112],{"label":105,"icon":106,"to":107},"LinkedIn","i-lucide-linkedin","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.linkedin.com\u002Fcompany\u002Fdataglass-labs",{"label":109,"icon":110,"to":111},"Facebook","i-lucide-facebook","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.facebook.com\u002Fdataglasslabsth",{"label":113,"icon":114,"to":115},"Instagram","i-lucide-instagram","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.instagram.com\u002Fdataglasslabs\u002F",{"links":117,"cta":196,"secondaryCta":199},[118,152,191,193,194,195],{"label":9,"to":119,"menu":120},"\u002F",{"layout":121,"heading":122,"cards":123,"groups":135,"footer":142},"cards","What DataGlass does",[124,128,132],{"label":125,"description":126,"to":13,"ui":127},"True profit ads optimization","Budgets, pacing and Target ROAS tuned for profit.","budget-tomorrow",{"label":129,"description":130,"to":16,"ui":131},"Unit economics breakdown","What you actually earn from every sale.","unit-economics",{"label":18,"description":133,"to":19,"motif":134},"An AI agent that knows your shops.",true,[136],{"label":137,"size":138,"links":139},"More","secondary",[140,141],{"label":21,"to":22},{"label":24,"to":25},[143,148],{"lead":144,"label":145,"icon":146,"to":147},"DataGlass v.2.6.","See what's new","i-lucide-box","https:\u002F\u002Flearn.dataglasslabs.com\u002Freleases",{"lead":149,"label":150,"icon":151,"to":37},"Read our","customer 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us",{"label":192,"to":37},"Customers",{"label":27,"to":28},{"label":48,"to":52},{"label":54,"to":55},{"label":197,"to":198},"Start for free","https:\u002F\u002Fapp.dataglasslabs.com\u002Fsign-up",{"label":200,"to":201},"Sign in","https:\u002F\u002Fapp.dataglasslabs.com\u002Fsign-in",{"clear":203,"groups":204},"Clear filters",[205,218],{"key":206,"label":207,"options":208},"platforms","Platform",[209,212,215],{"value":210,"label":211},"shopee","Shopee",{"value":213,"label":214},"lazada","Lazada",{"value":216,"label":217},"tiktok","TikTok Shop",{"key":219,"label":220,"options":221},"format","Format",[222,225,228,231,234,237,240],{"value":223,"label":224},"guide","Guide",{"value":226,"label":227},"article","Article",{"value":229,"label":230},"comparison","Comparison",{"value":232,"label":233},"calculator","Calculator",{"value":235,"label":236},"paper","Paper",{"value":238,"label":239},"survey","Survey",{"value":241,"label":242},"dataset","Dataset",{},{"title":245,"description":246,"cta":247,"errorTitle":249},"Page not found","The page may have moved, or it never existed.",{"label":248,"to":119},"Back to home","Something went wrong","en\u002Fchrome",{"previous":252,"next":253,"pause":254,"play":255,"goTo":256,"expand":257,"close":258,"readMore":259,"learnMore":260,"seeAll":261,"menu":262,"back":263,"share":264,"shareOn":265,"copyLink":266,"copied":267,"onThisPage":268,"minRead":269,"sources":270,"viewMore":271,"searchPosts":272,"allPosts":273,"all":274,"filters":275,"search":276,"searchClose":277,"searchPlaceholder":278,"searchSuggested":279,"searchResults":280,"searchNoResults":281,"searchLoading":282,"relatedTitle":283,"mainNav":284,"footerNav":285},"Previous","Next","Pause","Play","Go to item","Expand","Close","Read more","Learn more","See all","Menu","Back","Share","Share on","Copy link","Link copied","On this page","{n} min read","Sources","View more","Search posts","All posts","All","Filters","Search","Close search","Search DataGlass","Suggested","Results","No results for","Loading","More to discover","Main","Footer","HZQSEulcpFGY0nWnUTNYhG2n06nO97XnUBc_pEVOFxo",[288,298,304,310,315,320,324,330,335,341,347,353,358,363,368,374,380,386,392,399,405,411,417,422,427,433,438,443,449,455,460,466,472,478,483,489,495,501,506,510,515,520,526,533,539,545,551,557,563,569,575,581,587,593,599,605,611,617,622,627,632,637,642,648],{"title":289,"description":290,"category":291,"date":292,"readMinutes":293,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":296,"draft":294,"slug":297},"E-commerce ads optimization for Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop, on profit","E-commerce ads optimization on profit: True ROAS, margin-based Target ROAS and nightly budget allocation for Shopee, Lazada and TikTok Shop ads, applied for you.","ads","2026-10-23",4,false,null,[210,213,216],"ads-optimization",{"title":299,"description":300,"category":291,"date":292,"readMinutes":301,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":232,"platforms":302,"draft":294,"slug":303},"What ROAS is break-even? Calculate break-even ROAS and your maximum ad spend per order","Break-even ROAS is 1 ÷ your contribution-margin ratio. It does not depend on how much you spend on ads. This calculator derives it from a dated Shopee Thailand fee rate — or one you type in — then tells you the number sellers actually need: the most baht one order can pay for ads before it stops making money.",9,[210],"break-even-roas-calculator",{"title":305,"description":306,"category":307,"date":292,"readMinutes":308,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":229,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":309},"DataGlass vs a marketing agency for marketplace profit","When an agency is the right hire, where the agency model has structural blind spots for marketplace profit, and how DataGlass complements an agency engagement.","company",3,"dataglass-vs-agency",{"title":311,"description":312,"category":307,"date":292,"readMinutes":313,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":229,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":314},"DataGlass vs an ERP for marketplace decision-making","When an ERP is the right tool, where it falls short for marketplace ad\u002Fpricing decisions, and how DataGlass complements (not replaces) the ERP for SEA sellers.",2,"dataglass-vs-erp",{"title":316,"description":317,"category":307,"date":292,"readMinutes":313,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":229,"platforms":318,"draft":294,"slug":319},"DataGlass vs Shopee Seller Center for profit-aware operations","Shopee Seller Center is essential for running a Shopee shop, but it does not show profit-aware metrics or cross-platform views. How DataGlass complements it.",[210],"dataglass-vs-shopee-seller-center",{"title":321,"description":322,"category":307,"date":292,"readMinutes":313,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":229,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":323},"DataGlass vs spreadsheets for marketplace sellers","When spreadsheets are enough, where they break for marketplace sellers, and how DataGlass connects ads, COGS, fees, and inventory into one decision-ready view.","dataglass-vs-spreadsheet",{"title":325,"description":326,"category":327,"date":292,"readMinutes":313,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":328,"draft":294,"slug":329},"Prevent stockouts and overstock across Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop","Prevent Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop stockouts with demand-aware forecasting, campaign-day planning, and cross-platform inventory unification.","operations",[210,213,216],"inventory-stockout",{"title":331,"description":332,"category":327,"date":292,"readMinutes":313,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":333,"draft":294,"slug":334},"Lazada integration for marketplace profit optimization","DataGlass integrates with Lazada to model true profit per SKU, detect ad waste, evaluate voucher impact, and forecast stockout risk.",[213],"lazada-integration",{"title":336,"description":337,"category":338,"date":292,"readMinutes":301,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":232,"platforms":339,"draft":294,"slug":340},"Shopee raised its fees on 4 August 2026 — how much more is your shop paying?","The new rate table is everywhere. Your number is not. Enter last month’s GMV by category and this page computes the baht difference between the schedule effective 1 June 2026 and the one effective 4 August 2026 — including the extra hit for shops that were on the discounted-commission programme.","profit",[210],"marketplace-fee-impact-calculator",{"title":342,"description":343,"category":338,"date":292,"readMinutes":344,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":345,"draft":294,"slug":346},"Optimize e-commerce profit across Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop","How to optimize e-commerce profit across Shopee, Lazada and TikTok Shop: one objective, five decision variables, and the constraint that binds each.",7,[210,213,216],"optimize-ecommerce-profit",{"title":348,"description":349,"category":350,"date":292,"readMinutes":313,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":351,"draft":294,"slug":352},"Price and promote without destroying margin","Optimize Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop discounts, bundle deals, and campaign-day pricing on true margin. Project promotion impact before publishing.","pricing",[210,213,216],"pricing-promotions",{"title":354,"description":355,"category":338,"date":292,"readMinutes":293,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":232,"platforms":356,"draft":294,"slug":357},"E-commerce profit calculator for Shopee sellers","Calculate true Shopee profit per SKU with a per-order breakdown covering commission fees, ads, COGS, and fulfillment.",[210],"profit-margin",{"title":359,"description":360,"category":327,"date":292,"readMinutes":313,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":361,"draft":294,"slug":362},"Shopee integration for profit, ads, stock, and promotion decisions","DataGlass connects to Shopee to model true profit per SKU, detect wasted ad spend, and surface daily decisions. Live integration, no manual exports.",[210],"shopee-integration",{"title":364,"description":365,"category":327,"date":292,"readMinutes":313,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":366,"draft":294,"slug":367},"TikTok Shop integration for ads, inventory, and profit decisions","DataGlass integrates with TikTok Shop for True ROAS on video and live ads, margin-aware discount analysis, and stock prioritization before live events.",[216],"tiktok-shop-integration",{"title":369,"description":370,"category":291,"date":371,"readMinutes":344,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":372,"draft":294,"slug":373},"Shopee ROAS protection and TikTok ROI protection: when the credit actually protects profit","Shopee ROAS protection credits campaigns back to 80% of target, TikTok to 90%. Why that protects profit only above 1.25× break-even, with a worked example.","2026-10-08",[210,216],"roas-protection",{"title":375,"description":376,"category":291,"date":371,"readMinutes":377,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":378,"draft":294,"slug":379},"Shopee Ads optimization: set Target ROAS, budget and timing from profit","How to optimize Shopee Ads for profit: break-even ROAS per SKU, which lever binds, and CPC by hour from 9.11M Thai clicks. Worked THB example.",10,[210],"shopee-ads-optimization",{"title":381,"description":382,"category":338,"date":371,"readMinutes":383,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":384,"draft":294,"slug":385},"Shopee seller fees in the Philippines 2026: every fee, what it is charged on, and your break-even ROAS","Shopee Philippines seller fees 2026: commission, 2.24% transaction fee, 5.6% platform shipping, seller growth support and ₱5 order fee, worked on one order.",5,[210],"shopee-seller-fees",{"title":387,"description":388,"category":291,"date":371,"readMinutes":389,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":390,"draft":294,"slug":391},"TikTok Shop ads optimization: set GMV Max ROI from margin and affiliate mix","How to optimize TikTok Shop GMV Max for profit: break-even ROI after TikTok fees, the affiliate commission trap, and the 3% commission rule. Worked THB example.",8,[216],"tiktok-shop-ads-optimization",{"title":393,"description":394,"category":291,"date":395,"readMinutes":396,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":397,"draft":294,"slug":398},"How Shopee ads bidding works: what your Target ROAS and budget actually do to a bid","How Shopee ads bidding works, derived: GMV Max gives you two boxes — a Target ROAS and a daily budget — and every guide treats them as two levers. They are not. Both collapse into a single threshold on value-to-cost before any bid is placed, only one is binding at a time, and the other is doing nothing at all. Here is the derivation, the three regimes a campaign can be in, and the one-line test that tells you which of your two levers is switched off.","2026-09-01",13,[210],"how-shopee-ads-bidding-works",{"title":400,"description":401,"category":291,"date":395,"readMinutes":402,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":403,"draft":294,"slug":404},"Break-even ROAS is the zero line: the Target ROAS that actually maximizes Shopee profit","Setting your Target ROAS to your break-even ROAS does not protect profit — it targets exactly zero, for every possible volume. The target that maximizes profit is break-even marked up three times: by the demand your ads did not create, by the price your own expansion pays, and by the gap between your average click and your last one. On mid-market parameters those compound to 3.3×, moving the correct target on a 20%-margin product from 5.00 to 16.67.",12,[210],"profit-maximizing-target-roas",{"title":406,"description":407,"category":408,"date":395,"readMinutes":396,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":241,"platforms":409,"draft":294,"slug":410},"Shopee ad benchmarks 2026: what a click and a thousand impressions actually cost","Across 333.9 million Shopee impressions and 9.11 million clicks on 80+ Thai shops, the price of a click varies 2.01× by hour of day while the rate at which people click varies 1.14×. CPC ranges THB 3.36 to THB 6.75, CPM ranges THB 89.16 to THB 200.15, and every behavioural input is nearly flat. The full table, the methodology, and the two ways a benchmark like this gets misused.","data-science",[210],"shopee-ads-benchmarks-cpc-cpm",{"title":412,"description":413,"category":307,"date":414,"readMinutes":415,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":229,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":416},"DataGlass is not an OMS — what the difference is, and when to run both","An OMS makes the order happen. DataGlass decides what to do next. The daily-question boundary, an explicit list of what DataGlass does not do, and the one seam: price.","2026-08-25",6,"dataglass-vs-oms",{"title":418,"description":419,"category":291,"date":414,"readMinutes":344,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":420,"draft":294,"slug":421},"How much should you spend on Shopee Ads? Derive it from margin, not from feel","Break-even ROAS is 1 ÷ contribution margin ratio. Worked THB example: a fashion SKU allows THB 71 per attributed order and roughly THB 994 a day. Budget is an output.",[210],"shopee-ads-budget",{"title":423,"description":424,"category":338,"date":414,"readMinutes":344,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":425,"draft":294,"slug":426},"Losing money on Shopee — the leaks a fee calculator cannot see","Shopee deducts 7.49–17.12% plus a 3.21% payment fee — the half a calculator sees. Six month-level leaks turn a 28.6% \"profit\" into 1.6%. Sourced THB waterfall.",[210],"shopee-losing-money",{"title":428,"description":429,"category":430,"date":414,"readMinutes":344,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":229,"platforms":431,"draft":294,"slug":432},"Shopee vs TikTok Shop vs Lazada — what survives after fees and the ads it takes to sell","TikTok Shop's 11.77% fashion commission becomes a 23.2% take rate once the Commerce Growth and Transaction Fees stack. The crossover with Shopee sits near THB 3,720.","market",[210,213,216],"where-to-sell-shopee-tiktok-lazada",{"title":434,"description":435,"category":291,"date":436,"readMinutes":301,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":437},"CTR and Target ROAS under CPM vs CPC: what changes when marketplaces bill for impressions","Under cost-per-click billing, a better creative is worth nothing to your unit economics — it buys the same clicks from fewer impressions, and your cost per click does not move. Under cost-per-impression billing the same improvement cuts the price of every click by g\u002F(1+g). Five lemmas on the transition, and why click-through rate is the input most marketplace sellers are least prepared to have priced.","2026-08-18","ctr-target-roas-cpm-vs-cpc",{"title":439,"description":440,"category":291,"date":441,"readMinutes":377,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":442},"What is ROAS — and why a high ROAS doesn't always mean more sales or more profit","ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) is sales ÷ ad spend: spend THB 1, get THB 20 of sales back, and your ROAS is 20. But a high ROAS only means a high return per ad baht — not the highest total sales, and not real profit once you subtract COGS, platform fees, payment fees, vouchers, shipping, and returns. Here is what ROAS is, what it hides, and the number sellers should actually watch.","2026-06-01","what-is-roas",{"title":444,"description":445,"category":291,"date":446,"readMinutes":389,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":447,"draft":294,"slug":448},"What is Target ROAS? How to set it in Shopee GMV Max without burning profit","What is Target ROAS? It is the revenue-to-ad-spend ratio Shopee GMV Max optimises toward — and on the Shopee fee schedule effective 4 August 2026, a THB 1,000 product with THB 600 of COGS is left with 7.7% margin before ads, so a Target ROAS of 5 recovers THB 0.39 of contribution per THB 1.00 of ad spend while the campaign reports that it hit its target. What Target ROAS means, how to set it in GMV Max, and the two formulas — break-even ROAS and target-margin ROAS — that protect your margin.","2026-05-30",[210],"how-to-set-target-roas-gmv-max",{"title":450,"description":451,"category":291,"date":452,"readMinutes":415,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":453,"draft":294,"slug":454},"Platform ROAS vs true ROAS: why your ads make sales but no profit","A ROAS of 5 feels like a win — until you notice the platform computed it on gross attributed sales, before fees, vouchers, shipping, and COGS, and while still counting orders that were later returned or cancelled. The dashboard number is a revenue ratio wearing a profit costume. A primer on what platform ROAS hides and how true ROAS is calculated across Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop.","2026-05-29",[210,213,216],"platform-roas-vs-true-roas",{"title":456,"description":457,"category":408,"date":452,"readMinutes":415,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":458,"draft":294,"slug":459},"What is e-commerce optimization?","Optimization is not a marketing word — it is an operations-research discipline: use data and math to compute the best decision against an explicit objective. Point it at a Shopee, Lazada, or TikTok Shop store and the objective is true profit, not sales. A primer on why those two numbers stopped moving together, and what optimization actually answers.",[210,213,216],"what-is-ecommerce-optimization",{"title":461,"description":462,"category":338,"date":463,"readMinutes":301,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":464,"draft":294,"slug":465},"How to cut Shopee seller costs: the supply-side margin audit","The median gap between COGS refreshes on a top-50 Shopee catalogue is 87 days, and over that window supplier and packaging drift alone compresses contribution margin by 1.5–3.0 percentage points. The eight supply-side cost lines that compound against Shopee margin between audits, ranked by recoverable magnitude, with the review cadence that holds each one.","2026-05-08",[210],"how-to-increase-shopee-profit-without-more-sales",{"title":467,"description":468,"category":291,"date":463,"readMinutes":469,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":470,"draft":294,"slug":471},"How to sell more on Shopee without burning margin","The standard Shopee growth advice — discount harder, scale ad budget, opt into every campaign — works against the operator at scale. A research note on the lever order that actually compounds Shopee revenue, and the metric that tells you whether the lift was earned or bought.",11,[210],"how-to-sell-more-on-shopee",{"title":473,"description":474,"category":338,"date":475,"readMinutes":415,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":476,"draft":294,"slug":477},"Increase profit on Shopee without selling more","Shopee ROAS hides commission, fees, vouchers and shipping. Optimize Shopee profit with the per-SKU break-even framework that replaces it — 280 Thai accounts.","2026-05-07",[210],"increase-shopee-profit",{"title":479,"description":480,"category":430,"date":475,"readMinutes":415,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":481,"draft":294,"slug":482},"Increase sales on Shopee in 2026","Shopee CPC is climbing — buying demand got pricier while repeat demand stayed flat. The three levers that compound revenue, plus a 90-day operator cadence.",[210],"increase-shopee-sales",{"title":484,"description":485,"category":408,"date":475,"readMinutes":486,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":235,"platforms":487,"draft":294,"slug":488},"Mechanism-Aware Hierarchical Causal Elasticity Modeling for Platform E-Commerce","A methodological working paper proposing MA-HCEM: a hierarchical Bayesian, double-machine-learning, mechanism-aware estimator for SKU-level price elasticity on Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop, with Bundle Deal and voucher mechanisms treated as structured price discrimination.",27,[210,213,216],"mechanism-aware-hierarchical-causal-elasticity-modeling-platform-ecommerce",{"title":490,"description":491,"category":350,"date":475,"readMinutes":492,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":493,"draft":294,"slug":494},"Price elasticity modeling for marketplace sellers — why Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop pricing decisions need it","A practical guide from DataGlass Labs Research on the most under-used lever in Southeast Asian e-commerce: knowing how customers actually respond to price changes.",14,[210,213,216],"price-elasticity-modeling-shopee-lazada-tiktok-shop",{"title":496,"description":497,"category":408,"date":498,"readMinutes":499,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":235,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":500},"From Gut Feel to Posterior Inference: A Research Article on the DataGlass Decision-Intelligence System for E-Commerce Ad Budget Allocation","A rigorous public communication of the DataGlass decision-intelligence system for daily ad-budget allocation on platform-controlled marketplaces — the pre-algorithmic baseline, the analytical reasons it fails (the reported-vs-true ROAS gap and the rolling-mean bias), the Bayesian + bandits-with-knapsacks methodology, and the empirical 18–24% portfolio-profit lift with reduced reallocation frequency.","2026-05-04",20,"bayesian-budget-allocation-for-marketplace-ads",{"title":502,"description":503,"category":408,"date":498,"readMinutes":504,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":238,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":505},"Decision Intelligence for E-commerce: How Retailers Optimise Pricing, Demand Forecasting, Inventory, Promotions & Personalization","Pricing, forecasting, inventory, promotions, and personalization — a deep technical survey of the techniques large retailers use, the variants that matter, and how to deploy them",42,"decision-intelligence-playbook-for-e-commerce",{"title":507,"description":508,"category":408,"date":498,"readMinutes":308,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":509},"DataGlass Research Methodology","A single canonical reference for the sample frame, time window, attribution rules, and exclusions that calibrate every \"in our data\" claim across the blog and research surfaces.","methodology",{"title":511,"description":512,"category":408,"date":498,"readMinutes":513,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":238,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":514},"Prediction and Risk Optimization Under Uncertainty: A Cross-Domain Meta-Review","Mature decision systems in finance, operations, insurance, energy, healthcare, causal inference, and e-commerce share the same four primitives — a calibrated probabilistic model, a coherent risk-aware objective, an operational constraint set, and a principled exploration mechanism. Eleven worked cases ground the framework, with the DataGlass marketplace ad-budget system as the connecting tissue.",49,"prediction-and-risk-optimization-meta-review",{"title":516,"description":517,"category":327,"date":498,"readMinutes":492,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":518,"draft":294,"slug":519},"Shopee optimization in 2026 is a feedback loop, not a checklist","The popular \"10 ways to optimize your Shopee shop\" advice optimises the wrong objective. The lever that actually moves margin is the tightness of the diagnose → decide → operate loop — and most checklists skip the diagnose stage entirely.",[210],"shopee-optimization-in-2026",{"title":521,"description":522,"category":430,"date":498,"readMinutes":523,"featured":134,"cover":295,"format":241,"platforms":524,"draft":294,"slug":525},"Shopee Sellers in 2026: Southeast Asia E-commerce Market Research, GMV & Seller Economics","Market growth has resumed; seller economics have become more exacting. Southeast Asia's platform e-commerce reached US$157.6B in 2025 (up 22.8% YoY), top-three platforms now control about 98.8% of platform GMV, and content commerce accounts for ~32% of platform GMV. The 2026 question for sellers is no longer \"how big is the market?\" — it is \"who controls the decision loop?\"",22,[210],"southeast-asia-seller-market-research-2026",{"title":527,"description":528,"category":327,"date":529,"readMinutes":530,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":531,"draft":294,"slug":532},"Shopee fee structure and commission calculation in 2026: the six layers, the four-term formula","Most 'Shopee fees' explainers stop at commission and transaction fee. The four layers underneath — voucher co-funding, Free Shipping Program subsidy, Mall premium, payment-channel pass-through — are where the gap between dashboard revenue and bank deposit actually lives. With a sourced layer-by-layer breakdown, the four-term commission-per-order formula, two worked THB examples, a sensitivity table, and the reconciliation procedure.","2026-05-03",18,[210],"shopee-fee-structure-2026",{"title":534,"description":535,"category":291,"date":536,"readMinutes":469,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":537,"draft":294,"slug":538},"Cross-platform ad budget allocation for SEA marketplace sellers","Most multi-platform sellers split ad budget across Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop by historical revenue share. The math says that's wrong. Optimal allocation equalises marginal ROAS, not historical share — and the gap between the two on a typical account is 4–7 percentage points of net contribution margin per quarter.","2026-04-29",[210,213,216],"cross-platform-ad-budget-allocation",{"title":540,"description":541,"category":291,"date":542,"readMinutes":344,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":543,"draft":294,"slug":544},"Why scaling Shopee ad budget grows revenue and shrinks profit","A Shopee account moving its monthly ad budget from THB 40,000 to THB 100,000 commonly grows revenue 60% and loses a third of its net profit — and not one decision in that sequence looks wrong on the dashboard. The arithmetic of the scaling trap, why platform-reported ROAS is blind to it by construction, and the per-SKU break-even bar that stops it.","2026-04-22",[210],"how-to-increase-profit-on-shopee",{"title":546,"description":547,"category":338,"date":548,"readMinutes":396,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":549,"draft":294,"slug":550},"How to increase profit on Lazada in 2026","The LazMall badge lifts conversion. It also raises commission, mandates free-shipping subsidies, and pulls the price ceiling down through the platform's own competitive-parity rules. Whether the badge pays is a per-SKU question. A research note on the LazMall economics, why Sponsored Discovery leaks more margin than Sponsored Search, and the audit that recovers 4–6 percentage points of margin in 30 days.","2026-04-15",[213],"how-to-increase-profit-on-lazada",{"title":552,"description":553,"category":291,"date":554,"readMinutes":396,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":555,"draft":294,"slug":556},"How to reduce Shopee ad waste without killing sales","On a typical Shopee account, 20–30% of ad spend runs at a structural loss the platform dashboard ranks as winning campaigns. Pausing \"underperformers\" misses the leak. A research note on the two structural defaults that cause hidden ad waste — and the audit that surfaces it without losing revenue.","2026-04-08",[210],"how-to-reduce-shopee-ad-waste",{"title":558,"description":559,"category":338,"date":560,"readMinutes":469,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":561,"draft":294,"slug":562},"How to calculate Shopee seller margin","The math, the inputs, and the program-specific traps. Why Shopee's in-dashboard income view almost always overstates margin — and how to reconstruct true contribution margin per SKU using the order-line data Shopee already exposes via Open Platform.","2026-04-05",[210],"how-to-calculate-shopee-seller-margin",{"title":564,"description":565,"category":338,"date":566,"readMinutes":469,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":567,"draft":294,"slug":568},"How to calculate Lazada seller margin","The math, the inputs, and the program-specific traps. Why Lazada's in-platform P&L summary almost always overstates margin — and how to reconstruct true contribution margin per SKU using the order-line data Lazada exposes via the Open Platform.","2026-04-01",[213],"how-to-calculate-lazada-seller-margin",{"title":570,"description":571,"category":291,"date":572,"readMinutes":492,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":573,"draft":294,"slug":574},"How to calculate true Shopee ROAS for profit","A methodology note. Shopee's in-platform ROAS is gross-revenue based and structurally biased toward overspend at scale. True ROAS is the same formula with one input substituted — and that substitution flips winners into losses on roughly half the typical Shopee catalog. With charts, three SKU profiles, sensitivity analysis, and the operating procedure that applies the substitution at production cadence.","2026-03-25",[210],"how-to-calculate-true-shopee-roas",{"title":576,"description":577,"category":291,"date":578,"readMinutes":469,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":579,"draft":294,"slug":580},"How to reduce Lazada ad waste","Lazada runs two structurally different ad products — Sponsored Search and Sponsored Discovery — with break-even economics that diverge by ~1.4–1.8× in true-ROAS terms. A single account-wide ROAS target misjudges both. A research note on the audit that surfaces the structural waste, the pruning order that recovers margin without losing revenue, and the per-placement framework that survives Pay Day and 11.11.","2026-03-18",[213],"how-to-reduce-lazada-ad-waste",{"title":582,"description":583,"category":338,"date":584,"readMinutes":396,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":585,"draft":294,"slug":586},"How to find low-margin SKUs on Shopee","On a typical Shopee account, the top-10 SKUs by revenue and the top-10 by contribution profit overlap by roughly 50%. Half of every shop's bestsellers are not the most profitable products. A research note on the audit that surfaces the gap, the patterns hiding inside it, and the per-SKU operating decisions that recover margin.","2026-03-12",[210],"how-to-find-low-margin-skus-on-shopee",{"title":588,"description":589,"category":350,"date":590,"readMinutes":492,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":591,"draft":294,"slug":592},"How to plan Lazada campaigns around profit","Pay Day, Mega Sale, 11.11, and the long tail of category windows make participation feel mandatory. The platform documents the eligibility tiers; the seller absorbs them. A research note on what each campaign actually costs, when participation pays, and the margin-first rubric that survives all three.","2026-03-04",[213],"how-to-plan-lazada-campaigns-around-profit",{"title":594,"description":595,"category":338,"date":596,"readMinutes":402,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":223,"platforms":597,"draft":294,"slug":598},"How to increase profit on TikTok Shop in 2026","TikTok Shop is the only SEA marketplace with a stacked second commission — affiliate commission (10–25% via the Open Affiliate Plan) layered on top of platform commission. A 6.0 platform ROAS routinely becomes ~1.4 true ROAS once the full four-line cost stack is subtracted. A research note on the affiliate-stack arithmetic, live-stream pricing discipline, and the per-SKU framework that recovers margin without retreating from the platform.","2026-02-26",[216],"how-to-increase-profit-on-tiktok-shop",{"title":600,"description":601,"category":430,"date":602,"readMinutes":603,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":604},"The SEA marketplace in 2026: a fragmented arena with one survival rule","Eighteen distinct platform-market cells, six countries, three platforms, and roughly a million sellers competing on a saturated product surface. The aggregate is growing; the per-cell margin distribution is compressing. A research note on the structural shifts and the operating rule that survives them.","2026-02-22",16,"sea-marketplace-2026",{"title":606,"description":607,"category":408,"date":608,"readMinutes":469,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":609,"draft":294,"slug":610},"Data ingestion for Shopee sellers: why zero-setup analytics matters","Most Shopee sellers don't have a strategy problem first. They have a data plumbing problem — orders, ads, COGS, fees, vouchers, inventory, pricing, and returns live in seven different surfaces, and by the time the seller has stitched them together the campaign is over. A research note on the data-source matrix, the canonical-entity model, and the zero-setup architecture that recovers ~10 hours per week.","2026-02-18",[210],"data-ingestion-for-shopee-sellers",{"title":612,"description":613,"category":430,"date":614,"readMinutes":344,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":615,"draft":294,"slug":616},"The race to zero margin — and how Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop got there","Read the platform documentation end-to-end and the conclusion is uncomfortable: the discounts buyers see, the free shipping that drives conversion, and the affiliate spend that drives reach are all paid by the seller. The race-to-zero is the equilibrium output of that design.","2026-02-08",[210,213,216],"race-to-zero-margin",{"title":618,"description":619,"category":408,"date":620,"readMinutes":492,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":621},"ML demand forecasting for e-commerce sellers","Machine learning in e-commerce gets discussed in vague terms; for marketplace sellers the operating question is concrete — how many units of this SKU will sell in the next N days, with what confidence, and what decision flows from the answer? A research note on the practical model architecture, the stockout-distortion problem, sensitivity analysis, and the operating decisions forecasts feed.","2026-02-04","ml-demand-forecasting-for-ecommerce",{"title":623,"description":624,"category":430,"date":625,"readMinutes":415,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":626},"Complexity is the new tax on small sellers","A multi-shop seller in 2026 logs into seven platforms, reconciles four fee schedules, exports six CSVs, and re-enters COGS by hand. Big brands absorb the cost with a data team. Small sellers absorb it with their evenings — and it's the single biggest reason multi-shop operators stall before they reach scale.","2026-01-25","complexity-is-the-tax",{"title":628,"description":629,"category":327,"date":630,"readMinutes":402,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":631},"Stockout math for e-commerce sellers","A stockout is not one cost; it is five compounding costs. Lost contribution profit on the missed unit, plus wasted ad spend during the stockout window, plus algorithmic ranking demotion, plus repeat-buyer trust erosion, plus distorted forecasting that increases the likelihood of the next stockout. A research note on the multi-line stockout cost function, the per-SKU reorder-point math that accounts for it, and the campaign-aware adjustment that survives Pay Day and 11.11.","2026-01-18","inventory-stockout-math-ecommerce",{"title":633,"description":634,"category":350,"date":635,"readMinutes":469,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":636},"Dynamic pricing for marketplace sellers","Discounting is easy. Profitable pricing is hard. A 30% volume lift on a 10% price cut routinely lowers total contribution profit — the math says volume must lift by ~33% just to break even, and most SKUs underperform that bar. A research note on the price-elasticity arithmetic, the inventory × demand four-quadrant framework, and the per-SKU pricing decision that survives campaign-window pressure.","2026-01-04","dynamic-pricing-ecommerce-marketplaces",{"title":638,"description":639,"category":408,"date":640,"readMinutes":402,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":641},"E-commerce Decision Engine: How Marketplace Sellers Turn Data Into Profit Recommendations","A dashboard tells you what happened. A decision engine tells you what to do next, ranks the options by projected profit lift, and surfaces the math behind every recommendation. A research note on the five-layer architecture that separates the two, why marketplace commerce now requires the latter, and where the operating model breaks.","2025-12-12","how-ecommerce-decision-engines-work",{"title":643,"description":644,"category":327,"date":645,"readMinutes":389,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":646,"draft":294,"slug":647},"Multi-shop analytics for Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop sellers","Modern marketplace sellers rarely operate on one channel. They have multiple dashboards but not one operating view. They know sales by channel — but not profit by channel.","2025-11-26",[210,213,216],"multi-shop-analytics-lazada-shopee-tiktok",{"title":649,"description":650,"category":430,"date":651,"readMinutes":652,"featured":294,"cover":295,"format":226,"platforms":295,"draft":294,"slug":653},"The new competitive world of commerce","A research note on what changed in marketplace commerce between 2022 and 2026. Platforms became active algorithmic counterparties; sellers who treat them as passive listing markets are competing against optimization systems they cannot see. The fix is to run your own optimization layer on top.","2025-11-12",15,"new-competitive-world-of-commerce",{"entry":655,"document":758,"toc":1943},{"id":656,"title":496,"category":408,"cover":295,"cta":295,"date":498,"description":497,"draft":294,"draftReason":295,"extension":657,"featured":294,"format":235,"listen":295,"math":134,"meta":658,"navigation":295,"ogImage":295,"path":659,"platforms":295,"readMinutes":499,"related":295,"robots":295,"schemaOrg":295,"seo":660,"sitemap":663,"sources":664,"stem":755,"tldr":295,"topic":756,"updatedAt":295,"__hash__":757},"blog_en\u002Fblog\u002Fbayesian-budget-allocation-for-marketplace-ads.md","md",{},"\u002Fblog\u002Fbayesian-budget-allocation-for-marketplace-ads",{"title":661,"description":662},"Bayesian Budget Allocation for Marketplace Ads | DataGlass Research","Working paper: 18–24% portfolio-profit lift from Bayesian response modelling, constrained optimisation, and Thompson Sampling for daily marketplace ad budgets.",{"loc":659},[665,667,669,671,673,675,677,679,681,683,685,687,689,691,693,695,697,699,701,703,705,707,709,711,713,715,717,719,721,723,725,727,729,731,733,735,737,739,741,743,745,747,749,751,753],{"title":666},"DataGlass Research, \"DataGlass: Bayesian Budget Allocation for E-Commerce Advertising Under Platform Constraints,\" IEEE Trans. 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Cook, \"A survey of methods for time series change point detection,\" Knowledge and Information Systems, vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 339–367, 2017.",{"title":736},"R. A. Lewis and J. M. Rao, \"The unfavorable economics of measuring the returns to advertising,\" Quart. J. Econ., vol. 130, no. 4, pp. 1941–1973, 2015.",{"title":738},"B. R. Gordon, F. Zettelmeyer, N. Bhargava, and D. Chapsky, \"A comparison of approaches to advertising measurement,\" Marketing Sci., vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 193–225, 2019.",{"title":740},"E. Oster, \"Unobservable selection and coefficient stability,\" J. Bus. Econ. Stat., vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 187–204, 2019.",{"title":742},"K. H. Brodersen, F. Gallusser, J. Koehler, N. Remy, and S. L. Scott, \"Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models,\" Ann. Appl. Stat., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 247–274, 2015.",{"title":744},"K. M. Murphy and R. H. Topel, \"Estimation and inference in two-step econometric models,\" J. Bus. Econ. Stat., vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 370–373, 1985.",{"title":746},"A. Raue et al., \"Structural and practical identifiability analysis of partially observed dynamical models by exploiting the profile likelihood,\" Bioinformatics, vol. 25, no. 15, pp. 1923–1929, 2009.",{"title":748},"I. M. Dinner, H. J. Van Heerde, and S. A. Neslin, \"Driving online and offline sales: The cross-channel effects of traditional, online display, and paid search advertising,\" J. Marketing Res., vol. 51, no. 5, pp. 527–545, 2014.",{"title":750},"D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.",{"title":752},"DataGlass Research, \"DataGlass Model Proposal — Peer Review (R1),\" internal review, March 2026.",{"title":754},"DataGlass Research, \"DataGlass Model Proposal — Peer Review (R2 and R3),\" internal review, March 2026.","blog\u002Fbayesian-budget-allocation-for-marketplace-ads","models","zZ6VeMon2WkNo1hUYvSZGw0tCTK3ByD1xZy10C-J1j4",{"frontmatter":759,"meta":807,"nodes":923},{"title":496,"description":497,"seo":760,"category":408,"format":235,"topic":756,"date":498,"readMinutes":499,"math":134,"sources":761},{"title":661,"description":662},[762,763,764,765,766,767,768,769,770,771,772,773,774,775,776,777,778,779,780,781,782,783,784,785,786,787,788,789,790,791,792,793,794,795,796,797,798,799,800,801,802,803,804,805,806],{"title":666},{"title":668},{"title":670},{"title":672},{"title":674},{"title":676},{"title":678},{"title":680},{"title":682},{"title":684},{"title":686},{"title":688},{"title":690},{"title":692},{"title":694},{"title":696},{"title":698},{"title":700},{"title":702},{"title":704},{"title":706},{"title":708},{"title":710},{"title":712},{"title":714},{"title":716},{"title":718},{"title":720},{"title":722},{"title":724},{"title":726},{"title":728},{"title":730},{"title":732},{"title":734},{"title":736},{"title":738},{"title":740},{"title":742},{"title":744},{"title":746},{"title":748},{"title":750},{"title":752},{"title":754},{"toc":808},{"title":809,"searchDepth":313,"depth":313,"links":810},"",[811,814,817,833,852,855,858,874,877,880,883,886],{"id":812,"depth":313,"text":813},"abstract","Abstract",{"id":815,"depth":313,"text":816},"_1-introduction","1. Introduction",{"id":818,"depth":313,"text":819,"children":820},"_2-the-pre-algorithmic-era-how-sellers-bid-without-optimisation","2. The Pre-Algorithmic Era: How Sellers Bid Without Optimisation",[821,824,827,830],{"id":822,"depth":308,"text":823},"_2-the-pre-algorithmic-era-how-sellers-bid-without-optimisation-_21-trial-and-error-reallocation","2.1 Trial-and-error reallocation",{"id":825,"depth":308,"text":826},"_2-the-pre-algorithmic-era-how-sellers-bid-without-optimisation-_22-rolling-mean-extrapolation","2.2 Rolling-mean extrapolation",{"id":828,"depth":308,"text":829},"_2-the-pre-algorithmic-era-how-sellers-bid-without-optimisation-_23-gut-feel-and-intuition","2.3 Gut feel and intuition",{"id":831,"depth":308,"text":832},"_2-the-pre-algorithmic-era-how-sellers-bid-without-optimisation-_24-the-aggregate-cost-of-the-pre-algorithmic-baseline","2.4 The aggregate cost of the pre-algorithmic baseline",{"id":834,"depth":313,"text":835,"children":836},"_3-why-manual-heuristics-fail-the-true-roas-gap-and-the-rolling-mean-bias","3. Why Manual Heuristics Fail: The True-ROAS Gap and the Rolling-Mean Bias",[837,840,843,846,849],{"id":838,"depth":308,"text":839},"_3-why-manual-heuristics-fail-the-true-roas-gap-and-the-rolling-mean-bias-_31-the-reported-vs-true-roas-gap","3.1 The reported-vs-true ROAS gap",{"id":841,"depth":308,"text":842},"_3-why-manual-heuristics-fail-the-true-roas-gap-and-the-rolling-mean-bias-_32-why-rolling-mean-extrapolation-is-biased","3.2 Why rolling-mean extrapolation is biased",{"id":844,"depth":308,"text":845},"_3-why-manual-heuristics-fail-the-true-roas-gap-and-the-rolling-mean-bias-_33-attribution-latency-and-the-noise-floor-problem","3.3 Attribution latency and the noise-floor problem",{"id":847,"depth":308,"text":848},"_3-why-manual-heuristics-fail-the-true-roas-gap-and-the-rolling-mean-bias-_34-inventory-dilution-and-cvr-degradation","3.4 Inventory dilution and CVR degradation",{"id":850,"depth":308,"text":851},"_3-why-manual-heuristics-fail-the-true-roas-gap-and-the-rolling-mean-bias-_35-composite-cost","3.5 Composite cost",{"id":853,"depth":313,"text":854},"_4-problem-formulation","4. Problem Formulation",{"id":856,"depth":313,"text":857},"_5-methodological-foundations","5. Methodological Foundations",{"id":859,"depth":313,"text":860,"children":861},"_6-the-dataglass-system","6. The DataGlass System",[862,865,868,871],{"id":863,"depth":308,"text":864},"_6-the-dataglass-system-_61-component-1-bayesian-response-model","6.1 Component 1 — Bayesian response model",{"id":866,"depth":308,"text":867},"_6-the-dataglass-system-_62-component-2-constrained-portfolio-optimiser","6.2 Component 2 — Constrained portfolio optimiser",{"id":869,"depth":308,"text":870},"_6-the-dataglass-system-_63-component-3-non-stationarity-layer","6.3 Component 3 — Non-stationarity layer",{"id":872,"depth":308,"text":873},"_6-the-dataglass-system-_64-component-4-causal-identification","6.4 Component 4 — Causal identification",{"id":875,"depth":313,"text":876},"_7-discussion","7. Discussion",{"id":878,"depth":313,"text":879},"_8-limitations-and-future-work","8. Limitations and Future Work",{"id":881,"depth":313,"text":882},"_9-conclusion","9. Conclusion",{"id":884,"depth":313,"text":885},"acknowledgements","Acknowledgements",{"id":887,"depth":313,"text":888,"children":889},"references","References",[890,893,896,899,902,905,908,911,914,917,920],{"id":891,"depth":308,"text":892},"references-internal-technical-reports","Internal technical reports",{"id":894,"depth":308,"text":895},"references-industry-and-macroeconomic-context","Industry and macroeconomic context",{"id":897,"depth":308,"text":898},"references-response-curve-and-demand-modelling","Response curve and demand modelling",{"id":900,"depth":308,"text":901},"references-bandits-optimisation-and-online-learning","Bandits, optimisation, and online learning",{"id":903,"depth":308,"text":904},"references-real-time-bidding-and-reinforcement-learning","Real-time bidding and reinforcement learning",{"id":906,"depth":308,"text":907},"references-changepoint-detection-and-non-stationarity","Changepoint detection and non-stationarity",{"id":909,"depth":308,"text":910},"references-causal-identification-and-advertising-measurement","Causal identification and advertising measurement",{"id":912,"depth":308,"text":913},"references-identifiability-and-statistical-foundations","Identifiability and statistical foundations",{"id":915,"depth":308,"text":916},"references-cross-channel-effects","Cross-channel effects",{"id":918,"depth":308,"text":919},"references-behavioural-foundations","Behavioural foundations",{"id":921,"depth":308,"text":922},"references-internal-review-documents","Internal review documents",[924,940,943,946,957,959,961,989,1017,1020,1027,1030,1033,1035,1037,1040,1043,1060,1063,1065,1085,1089,1092,1095,1106,1108,1119,1121,1127,1129,1131,1134,1136,1139,1142,1169,1172,1191,1194,1203,1246,1255,1257,1267,1270,1289,1292,1299,1302,1308,1311,1325,1361,1363,1379,1393,1395,1405,1408,1424,1426,1433,1435,1437,1460,1470,1473,1503,1506,1509,1524,1531,1534,1547,1549,1551,1554,1590,1606,1609,1630,1658,1672,1675,1695,1716,1718,1720,1726,1728,1745,1760,1762,1768,1771,1778,1780,1796,1798,1804,1806,1808,1811,1825,1828,1835,1837,1839,1842,1865,1868,1875,1877,1879,1884,1891,1893,1895,1908,1910,1912,1914,1916,1918,1920,1922,1924,1926,1928,1930,1932,1934,1936],[925,926,927],"p",{},[928,929,930,931,935,936,939],"em",{},"Working paper, May 2026. Companion technical note to the peer-reviewed manuscript ",[932,933],"blog-cite",{"n":934},"1"," and the internal model proposal series ",[932,937],{"n":938},"2","–:blog-cite.",[941,942],"hr",{},[944,945,813],"h2",{"id":812},[925,947,948,949,952,953,956],{},"This article presents, at a level of detail appropriate for a public-facing research communication, the DataGlass decision-intelligence system for daily advertising-budget allocation on platform-controlled marketplaces such as Shopee, Lazada, TikTok Shop, and Amazon Sponsored Products. We first document the ",[928,950,951],{},"pre-algorithmic era"," of seller behaviour, in which the dominant practices are trial-and-error bid adjustments, rolling-mean extrapolation of dashboard metrics, and gut-feel reallocations driven by the ",[928,954,955],{},"reported"," return-on-ad-spend (ROAS) figure rather than the true contribution-margin-adjusted return. We show analytically that under realistic margin, return, and platform-fee assumptions, rolling-mean heuristics on reported ROAS systematically misallocate spend, overweight low-contribution campaigns, and induce excessive bid churn that interacts adversarially with platform learning systems. We then summarise the methodological foundations of the DataGlass system — a Bayesian response model, a constrained-portfolio optimiser solving an equal-marginal-profit condition, and a non-stationarity layer combining Thompson Sampling, CUSUM-based changepoint detection, and three-layer regime detection — and report empirical results from offline backtesting and live A\u002FB deployment showing 18–24% portfolio-profit improvements with reduced reallocation frequency. Proprietary calibration details are deliberately omitted; the article is intended as a rigorous public communication of the system's research foundations rather than a reproduction guide.",[941,958],{},[944,960,816],{"id":815},[925,962,963,964,967,968,971,972,975,976,979,980,967,982,967,985,988],{},"Online retail is now a US$6.3-trillion industry that absorbs roughly one in six retail dollars spent worldwide ",[932,965],{"n":966},"6",", ",[932,969],{"n":970},"22",". Within it, the distribution of analytical capability is sharply bimodal: a small group of platform-scale retailers operates end-to-end decision-intelligence stacks, while the long tail of small and medium marketplace sellers depends on spreadsheets, dashboard widgets, and intuition ",[932,973],{"n":974},"7",". The ",[928,977,978],{},"decision-intelligence gap"," — the difference between optimal and observed seller behaviour on commercial levers such as price, promotion, and ad spend — has been documented quantitatively in survey work and is widely understood to constitute a meaningful share of the contribution lost by SMB sellers each year ",[932,981],{"n":974},[932,983],{"n":984},"10",[932,986],{"n":987},"17",".",[925,990,991,992,967,994,997,998,967,1001,1004,1005,1008,1009,967,1011,967,1014,988],{},"Within this gap, advertising budget allocation is a particularly acute problem for three structural reasons. First, on modern marketplace platforms the seller does not bid: the platform does. The seller controls only daily budget and target ROAS, and the platform's auto-bidding algorithm decides keywords, audiences, placement, and pacing ",[932,993],{"n":934},[932,995],{"n":996},"4",". Second, the platform is opaque: the auction mechanism, the matching algorithm, and the relevance score are not disclosed, so the seller observes only an input–output mapping whose internal structure must be inferred from data ",[932,999],{"n":1000},"21",[932,1002],{"n":1003},"25",". Third, the platform actively penalises high-frequency intervention through learning-phase freezes, minimum-change windows, and pacing throttles, so the obvious response — bid harder, retune more often — is ",[928,1006,1007],{},"operationally"," counterproductive ",[932,1010],{"n":934},[932,1012],{"n":1013},"3",[932,1015],{"n":1016},"5",[925,1018,1019],{},"This article documents how DataGlass — a production decision-intelligence system that, as of Q1 2026, manages budgets for several hundred active sellers on a major Southeast Asian marketplace — addresses this constraint structure. The contribution of the article itself, as distinct from the underlying methodological work, is twofold:",[925,1021,1022,1023,1026],{},"1. We characterise the ",[928,1024,1025],{},"pre-algorithmic baseline"," — the family of manual heuristics that small sellers use today — with enough quantitative precision to make the failure modes legible. In particular, we formalise the gap between reported ROAS and true contribution-margin-adjusted ROAS and show that rolling-mean extrapolation under this gap is an asymptotically biased estimator of marginal profit per dollar.",[925,1028,1029],{},"2. We summarise the methodological core of DataGlass at the level required to evaluate its scientific positioning, while withholding the proprietary calibration that distinguishes the production system from a textbook implementation.",[925,1031,1032],{},"The remainder of the article is organised as follows. Section 2 surveys the historical and current practice of manual ad-budget management. Section 3 derives the analytical reasons that practice fails. Section 4 fixes notation and states the formal optimisation problem. Section 5 reviews the relevant academic literature. Section 6 describes the DataGlass system at a high level. Section 7 discusses positioning and generalisation. Sections 8 and 9 cover limitations and conclusion. Citations follow IEEE numerical style.",[941,1034],{},[944,1036,819],{"id":818},[925,1038,1039],{},"For most of the post-2015 marketplace era, seller-side ad-budget decisions have been made by humans operating on spreadsheets, dashboards, and intuition. Three families of heuristics dominate.",[1041,1042,823],"h3",{"id":822},[925,1044,1045,1046,1048,1049,1051,1052,1055,1056,1059],{},"The most common pattern observed in the seller surveys synthesised by Jungle Scout ",[932,1047],{"n":984},", Shopify Commerce Trends ",[932,1050],{"n":987},", and the McKinsey SMB index ",[932,1053],{"n":1054},"13"," is a weekly or twice-weekly ",[928,1057,1058],{},"manual sweep",": the seller opens the marketplace dashboard, sorts campaigns by reported ROAS, increases the budget on the top-quartile campaigns by a fixed percentage (typically 10–30%), decreases or pauses the bottom quartile, and revisits the next week. There is no model of the budget–response relationship, no quantification of uncertainty, and no separation of signal from noise. The implicit assumption is that yesterday's reported ROAS is a good predictor of tomorrow's marginal ROAS — an assumption that we show in Section 3 fails systematically and asymmetrically.",[925,1061,1062],{},"The operational consequences are well documented. Frequent budget edits trigger platform-side learning-phase resets, during which the auto-bidder collects fresh exploration data and the campaign's effective cost-per-click is elevated [1, §3]. The seller observes degraded performance, reacts with further edits, and a self-reinforcing churn cycle is established. Empirical estimates from internal DataGlass auditing of un-managed seller accounts suggest that 30–55% of all manual budget edits made during a learning phase are net-negative in expected contribution.",[1041,1064,826],{"id":825},[925,1066,1067,1068,1072,1073,1076,1077,1080,1081,1084],{},"A more numerate seller will run a rolling mean — typically 7-day or 14-day — of dashboard ROAS or revenue per campaign, and use it as a point estimate for next-day performance. Letting ",[1069,1070],"blog-math",{"html":1071,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">R_t\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," denote the reported ROAS on day ",[1069,1074],{"html":1075,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">t\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6151em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," and ",[1069,1078],{"html":1079,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmover accent=\"true\">\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>ˉ\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmover>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\bar R_t^{(k)}\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.2906em;vertical-align:-0.2458em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord accent\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8201em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2523em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"accent-body\" style=\"left:-0.1667em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">ˉ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.0448em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4542em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2198em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen mtight\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0315em;\">k\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose mtight\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2458em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," the trailing-",[1069,1082],{"html":1083,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">k\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0315em;\">k\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," mean,",[1069,1086],{"html":1087,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmover accent=\"true\">\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>ˉ\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmover>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmunderover>\u003Cmo>∑\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>τ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>+\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmunderover>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>τ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmspace width=\"2em\"\u002F>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmover accent=\"true\">\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"true\">^\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmover>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>+\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmover accent=\"true\">\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>ˉ\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmover>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\bar R_t^{(k)} \\;=\\; \\frac{1}{k} \\sum_{\\tau = t-k+1}^{t} R_\\tau, \\qquad \\widehat{R}_{t+1} \\;=\\; \\bar R_t^{(k)},\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" 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class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.3604em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.1514em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan 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class=\"mord accent\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8201em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2523em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"accent-body\" style=\"left:-0.1667em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">ˉ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.0448em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4542em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2198em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen mtight\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0315em;\">k\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose mtight\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2458em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>","true",[925,1090,1091],{},"the seller 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separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmover accent=\"true\">\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>ˉ\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmover>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo>∙\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">b_{i, t+1} \\;=\\; b_{i,t} \\cdot \\frac{\\bar R_{i,t}^{(k)}}{\\bar R_{\\bullet,t}^{(k)}},\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9805em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">+\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9805em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:3.1644em;vertical-align:-1.3167em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.8478em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.11em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.0448em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord accent\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8201em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2523em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"accent-body\" style=\"left:-0.1667em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">ˉ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.0448em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4542em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">∙\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2198em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen mtight\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0315em;\">k\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose mtight\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3819em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2748em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.0448em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.8478em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.0448em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord accent\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8201em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2523em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"accent-body\" style=\"left:-0.1667em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">ˉ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.0448em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2198em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen mtight\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0315em;\">k\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose mtight\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.413em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.3167em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1096,1097,1098,1101,1102,1105],{},"where ",[1069,1099],{"html":1100,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmover accent=\"true\">\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>ˉ\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmover>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo>∙\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\bar R_{\\bullet,t}^{(k)}\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.4267em;vertical-align:-0.3819em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord accent\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8201em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2523em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"accent-body\" style=\"left:-0.1667em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">ˉ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.0448em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4542em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">∙\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.2198em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen mtight\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0315em;\">k\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose mtight\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3819em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is the portfolio-wide mean. This is the ",[928,1103,1104],{},"poor man's portfolio optimiser",": it reallocates toward campaigns whose recent reported return is above average. It is more disciplined than pure intuition, but it carries every pathology of a moving-average estimator on a non-stationary, censored, attribution-lagged signal — and, as we show below, it is biased in a direction that systematically rewards low-contribution campaigns.",[1041,1107,829],{"id":828},[925,1109,1110,1111,1114,1115,1118],{},"The third practice, which often coexists with the first two, is intuition: the seller \"knows\" that a campaign is doing well because of a recent flurry of orders, or \"feels\" that a competitor is being aggressive on a particular SKU. There is a substantial behavioural-economics literature documenting that humans systematically over-react to recent reinforcement, under-weight base rates, and confuse variance with signal — see, among others, the survey by Kahneman ",[932,1112],{"n":1113},"12"," and the experimental advertising work of Lewis and Rao ",[932,1116],{"n":1117},"14",", who showed that the signal-to-noise ratio in observational ad measurement is so unfavourable that confident-sounding causal claims by SMB sellers are typically not supported by their own data.",[1041,1120,832],{"id":831},[925,1122,1123,1124,1126],{},"The economic implication is direct. SMB sellers spent an estimated US$80–110 billion on marketplace ads in 2024 ",[932,1125],{"n":970},". Conservatively, if 15–25% of that spend is misallocated by the heuristics in sections 2.1–2.3, the deadweight loss is on the order of US$12–28 billion annually. This is the contestable surface that decision-intelligence systems address.",[941,1128],{},[944,1130,835],{"id":834},[925,1132,1133],{},"We now formalise the two principal failure modes of the pre-algorithmic baseline.",[1041,1135,839],{"id":838},[925,1137,1138],{},"The dashboard figure displayed to the seller is",[1069,1140],{"html":1141,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>rep\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmtext>Attributed Revenue\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmtext>Spend\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">.\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">R_i^{\\text{rep}} \\;=\\; \\frac{\\text{Attributed Revenue}_i}{\\text{Spend}_i}.\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0592em;vertical-align:-0.2769em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7823em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1809em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">rep\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.3016em;vertical-align:-0.9301em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.3714em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.314em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">Spend\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2175em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4559em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2441em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.23em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">Attributed Revenue\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.9301em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1143,1144,1145,1148,1149,1152,1153,1156,1157,1160,1161,1164,1165,1168],{},"This is ",[928,1146,1147],{},"not"," a measure of profit. The seller's actual contribution margin from a marginal advertising dollar must net out cost of goods sold, platform commission, payment processing, fulfilment subsidy, and post-sale return loss. Letting ",[1069,1150],{"html":1151,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>m\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>g\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">m_g\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.7167em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.1514em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">g\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," denote the gross margin on the basket, ",[1069,1154],{"html":1155,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>f\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">f\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.1076em;\">f\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," the all-in platform-fee fraction, ",[1069,1158],{"html":1159,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>r\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">r\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.4306em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">r\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," the post-sale return rate, and ",[1069,1162],{"html":1163,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>ρ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\rho\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">ρ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," a fulfilment-and-payment overhead fraction, the ",[928,1166,1167],{},"true profit-adjusted ROAS"," is approximately",[1069,1170],{"html":1171,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>true\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>rep\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>m\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>g\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>r\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>f\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>ρ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">.\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">R_i^{\\text{true}} \\;=\\; R_i^{\\text{rep}} \\cdot m_g \\cdot (1 - r) \\cdot (1 - f - \\rho).\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0906em;vertical-align:-0.247em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8436em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.453em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">true\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.247em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0592em;vertical-align:-0.2769em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7823em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1809em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">rep\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.7306em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.1514em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">g\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">r\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.1076em;\">f\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">ρ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1173,1174,1175,967,1178,967,1181,1184,1185,1187,1188,1190],{},"For a typical Southeast Asian apparel seller with ",[1069,1176],{"html":1177,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>m\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>g\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>≈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>0.45\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">m_g \\approx 0.45\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.7692em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.1514em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">g\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">≈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">0.45\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[1069,1179],{"html":1180,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>r\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>≈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>0.18\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">r \\approx 0.18\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.4831em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">r\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">≈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">0.18\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[1069,1182],{"html":1183,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>f\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>+\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>ρ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>≈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>0.17\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">f + \\rho \\approx 0.17\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.1076em;\">f\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">+\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6776em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">ρ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">≈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">0.17\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",", a ",[928,1186,955],{}," ROAS of 5.0× corresponds to a ",[928,1189,1088],{}," ROAS of approximately",[1069,1192],{"html":1193,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>true\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>≈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmn>5.0\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>0.45\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>0.82\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>0.83\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>≈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmn>1.53\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">R^{\\text{true}} \\;\\approx\\; 5.0 \\cdot 0.45 \\cdot 0.82 \\cdot 0.83 \\;\\approx\\; 1.53,\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8436em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8436em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">true\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">≈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">5.0\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">0.45\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">0.82\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">0.83\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">≈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8389em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">1.53\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1195,1196,1197,1202],{},"i.e., a contribution multiplier of 1.53× on advertising spend rather than the headline 5×. A campaign reporting 2.5× ROAS — which most sellers would treat as healthy — has a true contribution multiplier of approximately 0.77×, i.e., it is loss-making on every marginal dollar. The phenomenon is not subtle; it is structural; and it is not visible on any standard marketplace dashboard. See the longer treatment in ",[1198,1199,1201],"a",{"href":1200},"\u002Fblog\u002Fhow-to-calculate-true-shopee-roas","the true-ROAS reconstruction note"," for a Shopee-specific worked example, and contribution margin for the canonical definition.",[1204,1205],"blog-chart",{"kind":1206,"title":1207,"labels":1208,"values":1218,"compare":1228,"series":1238,"unit":1241,"max":1242,"xLabel":1243,"yLabel":1244,"caption":1245},"line","Figure 1 — Reported ROAS vs. true (profit-adjusted) ROAS across two category profiles. The orange line is high-margin, low-return apparel (m_g = 0.45, r = 0.18, f + = 0.17); the dashed line is low-margin, mid-return consumer electronics (m_g = 0.15, r = 0.10, f + = 0.17). Apparel breaks even at reported ≈ 3.3×; electronics not until reported ≈ 9×.",[1209,1210,1211,1212,1213,1214,1215,1216,1217],"1×","2×","3×","4×","5×","6×","7×","8×","10×",[1219,1220,1221,1222,1223,1224,1225,1226,1227],0.31,0.61,0.92,1.22,1.53,1.84,2.14,2.45,3.06,[1229,1230,1231,1232,1233,1234,1235,1236,1237],0.11,0.22,0.34,0.45,0.56,0.67,0.78,0.9,1.12,[1239,1240],"Apparel (high-margin)","Electronics (low-margin)","×","3.5","Reported ROAS (× spend)","True ROAS (× spend)","Break-even is true ROAS = 1×. A reported 5× looks identical on the dashboard for both categories, but apparel runs ~1.5× contribution while electronics runs at ~0.6× — i.e. loss-making on every marginal dollar.",[925,1247,1248,1249,1251,1252,1254],{},"The same arithmetic generalises across categories. For consumer electronics, where ",[1069,1250],{"html":1151,"display":-1}," is often 0.10–0.20, the break-even ",[928,1253,955],{}," ROAS is in the 6–10× range. For high-margin beauty SKUs with low return rates, it is closer to 2×. The break-even reported ROAS therefore varies over an order of magnitude across categories, yet sellers routinely apply a single dashboard cutoff (commonly 3× or 4×) across heterogeneous portfolios.",[1041,1256,842],{"id":841},[925,1258,1259,1260,967,1263,1266],{},"Consider a campaign whose true budget–revenue relationship is concave with diminishing returns — empirically, a saturating Hill-type curve ",[932,1261],{"n":1262},"9",[932,1264],{"n":1265},"16",":",[1069,1268],{"html":1269,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>λ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>λ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>max\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>⁡\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>K\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo>+\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\lambda_i(b) \\;=\\; \\lambda_i^{\\max} \\cdot \\frac{b^{\\theta_i}}{K_i^{\\theta_i} + b^{\\theta_i}},\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">λ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9614em;vertical-align:-0.247em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">λ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7144em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.453em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mop mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">a\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">x\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.247em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.624em;vertical-align:-1.0979em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.5261em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.179em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0715em;\">K\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.931em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0715em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1449em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">+\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7751em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.989em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.23em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8491em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.0979em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1271,1272,1273,1276,1277,1280,1281,1284,1285,1288],{},"so the corresponding revenue function ",[1069,1274],{"html":1275,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>ρ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">A\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">O\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">V\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>λ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\rho_i(b) = \\mathrm{AOV}_i \\cdot \\lambda_i(b) \\cdot q_i\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">ρ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathrm\" style=\"margin-right:0.0139em;\">AOV\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">λ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is also concave, where ",[1069,1278],{"html":1279,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">q_i\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is conversion rate and ",[1069,1282],{"html":1283,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">A\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">O\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">V\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\mathrm{AOV}_i\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathrm\" style=\"margin-right:0.0139em;\">AOV\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is average order value. The marginal ROAS at budget ",[1069,1286],{"html":1287,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">b\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is",[1069,1290],{"html":1291,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">∂\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>ρ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">∂\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">A\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">O\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">V\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>K\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>K\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo>+\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>2\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">.\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\frac{\\partial \\rho_i}{\\partial b}(b) \\;=\\; \\mathrm{AOV}_i \\cdot q_i \\cdot \\frac{\\theta_i \\cdot K_i^{\\theta_i} \\cdot b^{\\theta_i - 1}}{(K_i^{\\theta_i} + b^{\\theta_i})^2}.\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.0574em;vertical-align:-0.686em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.3714em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.314em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\" style=\"margin-right:0.0556em;\">∂\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.23em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\" style=\"margin-right:0.0556em;\">∂\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">ρ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.686em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathrm\" style=\"margin-right:0.0139em;\">AOV\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6389em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.7059em;vertical-align:-1.0979em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.608em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.179em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0715em;\">K\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.931em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0715em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1449em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">+\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7751em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.989em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7401em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.989em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.23em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0715em;\">K\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.931em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0715em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1449em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8491em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.0979em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1293,1294,1295,1298],{},"This is the quantity a profit-maximising allocation must equalise across campaigns. The reported ",[928,1296,1297],{},"average"," ROAS is, by contrast,",[1069,1300],{"html":1301,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>rep\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>ρ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">A\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">O\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">V\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>λ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>max\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>⁡\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>K\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo>+\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">R_i^{\\text{rep}}(b) \\;=\\; \\frac{\\rho_i(b)}{b} \\;=\\; \\mathrm{AOV}_i \\cdot q_i \\cdot \\frac{\\lambda_i^{\\max} \\cdot b^{\\theta_i - 1}}{K_i^{\\theta_i} + b^{\\theta_i}},\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0592em;vertical-align:-0.2769em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7823em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1809em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">rep\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan 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style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">ρ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.686em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathrm\" style=\"margin-right:0.0139em;\">AOV\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6389em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.624em;vertical-align:-1.0979em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.5261em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.179em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0715em;\">K\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.931em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0715em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1449em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">+\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7751em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.989em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.23em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">λ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.6644em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4413em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mop mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">a\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">x\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2587em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8491em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3281em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.0979em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1303,1304,1305,1307],{},"which is the ",[928,1306,1297],{}," return per dollar, not the marginal return. By the standard concavity argument, average exceeds marginal whenever the curve is concave, and the gap",[1069,1309],{"html":1310,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">Δ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>rep\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">∂\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>ρ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">∂\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\Delta_i(b) \\;=\\; R_i^{\\text{rep}}(b) - \\frac{\\partial \\rho_i}{\\partial b}(b)\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">Δ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0592em;vertical-align:-0.2769em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7823em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1809em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">rep\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.0574em;vertical-align:-0.686em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.3714em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.314em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\" style=\"margin-right:0.0556em;\">∂\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.23em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\" style=\"margin-right:0.0556em;\">∂\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">ρ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.686em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1312,1313,1314,1316,1317,1320,1321,988],{},"is monotone increasing in spend over the saturating regime. A rolling-mean estimator that targets average rather than marginal ROAS therefore over-allocates to campaigns that are already saturated, because their ",[928,1315,1297],{}," ROAS remains high even as their ",[928,1318,1319],{},"marginal"," ROAS approaches zero. This is the analytical mechanism behind the empirical observation that high-spend campaigns under manual management exhibit declining contribution despite stable dashboard metrics [1, §X]. The applied counterpart — equalising marginal-ROAS curves across platforms rather than allocating by historical revenue share — is documented in ",[1198,1322,1324],{"href":1323},"\u002Fblog\u002Fcross-platform-ad-budget-allocation","the cross-platform ad-budget allocation note",[1204,1326],{"kind":1206,"title":1327,"labels":1328,"values":1335,"compare":1345,"series":1355,"unit":1241,"max":966,"xLabel":1358,"yLabel":1359,"caption":1360},"Figure 2 — The rolling-mean bias on a saturating Hill curve. As budget rises, the average ROAS (what dashboards display) decays slowly while the marginal ROAS — the quantity a profit-maximising allocator must equalise across campaigns — collapses toward zero. Manual sweeps that read the dashboard reward campaigns operating in the shaded region, where the ad dollar has stopped paying for itself.",[1016,984,1329,1330,1003,1331,1332,1333,1334],"15","20","30","40","50","60",[1336,1337,1338,1339,1340,1341,1342,1343,1344],5.4,5.05,4.65,4.2,3.8,3.45,2.95,2.55,2.3,[1346,1347,1348,1349,1350,1351,1352,1353,1354],4.95,4.05,3.1,2.25,1.55,1.05,0.55,0.3,0.18,[1356,1357],"Average ROAS (dashboard)","Marginal ROAS (true)","Daily budget (THB, × 1000)","ROAS (× spend)","Hill parameters: ^ = 60, K = 18, = 1.4, AOV q =  THB 290. The gap between the two curves IS the rolling-mean bias.",[1041,1362,845],{"id":844},[925,1364,1365,1366,1368,1369,1371,1372,1375,1376,1378],{},"A second issue compounds the bias. Marketplace platforms typically credit purchases to ads within an attribution window of 7–14 days ",[932,1367],{"n":1000},". The reported ROAS on day ",[1069,1370],{"html":1075,"display":-1}," therefore mixes click cohorts from days ",[1069,1373],{"html":1374,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>13\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">t-13\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6984em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">13\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," through ",[1069,1377],{"html":1075,"display":-1},", with non-trivial weights and a partial reveal of any given day's cohort. A rolling 7-day mean over partially-attributed daily ROAS is a convolution of two smoothing kernels and inherits a phase lag of approximately 4–7 days relative to the true daily marginal ROAS. Sellers reacting to this lagged signal effectively chase the previous regime, and the auto-correlation induced by the attribution mixing is routinely mistaken for genuine signal — a textbook spurious-regression problem in the sense of Granger and Newbold.",[925,1380,1381,1382,1384,1385,1388,1389,1392],{},"Lewis and Rao ",[932,1383],{"n":1117}," establish the ",[928,1386,1387],{},"unfavourable economics of advertising measurement"," result: for typical SMB advertising volumes, the standard error of an observational ROAS estimate is large enough that point estimates within ",[1069,1390],{"html":1391,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo>±\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>30\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">%\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\pm 30\\%\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">±\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">30%\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," are statistically indistinguishable from the null. Sellers without uncertainty quantification therefore make decisions on signals that are formally below their own noise floor.",[1041,1394,848],{"id":847},[925,1396,1397,1398,1400,1401,1404],{},"A third compounding effect, documented by Ma et al. ",[932,1399],{"n":1329}," for Taobao search ads, is that conversion rate degrades when click volume scales beyond the seller's effective inventory or fulfilment capacity. Letting ",[1069,1402],{"html":1403,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>u\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">u_{i,t}\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.7167em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">u\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," denote campaign utilisation,",[1069,1406],{"html":1407,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>u\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>base\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>g\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>u\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">q_i(u) \\;=\\; q_i^{\\text{base}} \\cdot g(u),\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">u\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.1461em;vertical-align:-0.247em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8991em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.453em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">base\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.247em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">g\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">u\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1409,1097,1410,1413,1414,1416,1417,1419,1420,988],{},[1069,1411],{"html":1412,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>g\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">g\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">g\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is a monotone-decreasing dilution function above a campaign-specific threshold. Rolling-mean heuristics, which assume ",[1069,1415],{"html":1279,"display":-1}," is constant in ",[1069,1418],{"html":1287,"display":-1},", will systematically over-state the marginal return of a campaign whose budget increase pushes it past the dilution threshold. The connected operating problem — when ad volume scales into a stockout window — is treated quantitatively in ",[1198,1421,1423],{"href":1422},"\u002Fblog\u002Finventory-stockout-math-ecommerce","the stockout-cost note",[1041,1425,851],{"id":850},[925,1427,1428,1429,988],{},"In aggregate, manual heuristics are biased estimators of marginal contribution because they (i) confuse reported with true ROAS, (ii) confuse average with marginal, (iii) ignore attribution latency, (iv) ignore inventory dilution, and (v) ignore the platform-side cost of bid churn. The DataGlass system addresses each of these explicitly. The structural reframing — moving from a dashboard model to a decision-engine model — is summarised in ",[1198,1430,1432],{"href":1431},"\u002Fblog\u002Fhow-ecommerce-decision-engines-work","the decision-engine architecture note",[941,1434],{},[944,1436,854],{"id":853},[925,1438,1439,1440,967,1442,1444,1445,1448,1449,1452,1453,1455,1456,1459],{},"We adopt the notation of the underlying technical report ",[932,1441],{"n":934},[932,1443],{"n":1016},". Let ",[1069,1446],{"html":1447,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">{\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>…\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>N\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">}\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">i \\in \\{1, \\dots, N\\}\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6986em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">∈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">{\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"minner\">…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.109em;\">N\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">}\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," index a seller's active campaigns, and let ",[1069,1450],{"html":1451,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>∈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">[\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmunder accentunder=\"true\">\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"true\">‾\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmunder>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmover accent=\"true\">\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"true\">‾\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmover>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">]\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">b_{i,t} \\in [\\underline b_i, \\overline b_i]\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9805em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">∈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.1444em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">[\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord underline\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.6944em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.84em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"underline-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.212em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4503em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2497em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord overline\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8944em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.8144em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"overline-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">]\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," denote the daily budget on day ",[1069,1454],{"html":1075,"display":-1},". The decision problem each morning is to choose a vector ",[1069,1457],{"html":1458,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"bold\">b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>…\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>N\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\mathbf{b}_t = (b_{1,t}, \\dots, b_{N,t})\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathbf\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0361em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3011em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"minner\">…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3283em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.109em;\">N\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," that maximises expected portfolio profit subject to operational constraints.",[925,1461,1462,1463,1466,1467,1469],{},"The expected profit of campaign ",[1069,1464],{"html":1465,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">i\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6595em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," at budget ",[1069,1468],{"html":1287,"display":-1}," admits the decomposition",[1069,1471],{"html":1472,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>π\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">A\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">O\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">V\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>λ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>u\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>m\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>g\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>s\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>c\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>plat\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\pi_i(b) \\;=\\; \\mathrm{AOV}_i \\cdot \\lambda_i(b) \\cdot q_i(u_{i,t}) \\cdot m_g - s_i(b) - c_i^{\\text{plat}}(b),\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">π\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathrm\" style=\"margin-right:0.0139em;\">AOV\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">λ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0361em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">u\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8694em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.1514em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">g\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">s\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.2439em;vertical-align:-0.2769em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">c\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.967em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1809em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">plat\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1474,1097,1475,1478,1479,967,1482,1485,1486,1489,1490,1485,1492,1495,1496,1499,1500,1502],{},[1069,1476],{"html":1477,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>λ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\lambda_i(b)\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">λ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is expected clicks (modelled as a Negative-Binomial count process to absorb overdispersion ",[932,1480],{"n":1481},"8",[932,1483],{"n":1484},"23","), ",[1069,1487],{"html":1488,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>⋅\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">q_i(\\cdot)\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">⋅\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is conversion rate (modelled as Beta–Binomial with utilisation-dependent dilution ",[932,1491],{"n":1329},[1069,1493],{"html":1494,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>s\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">s_i(b)\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">s\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is realised spend (close to but not identically equal to the budget under platform pacing), ",[1069,1497],{"html":1498,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>c\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>plat\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">c_i^{\\text{plat}}(b)\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.2439em;vertical-align:-0.2769em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">c\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.967em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4231em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.1809em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">plat\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2769em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," are platform commission and fee charges, and ",[1069,1501],{"html":1151,"display":-1}," is the gross-margin multiplier introduced in Section 3.1.",[925,1504,1505],{},"The portfolio problem is",[1069,1507],{"html":1508,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmunder>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>max\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>⁡\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"bold\">b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmunder>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmunderover>\u003Cmo>∑\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmi>N\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmunderover>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>π\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmspace width=\"1em\"\u002F>\u003Cmtext>s.t.\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmunder>\u003Cmo>∑\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmunder>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>≤\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>B\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>∈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"script\">F\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\max_{\\mathbf{b}_t} \\; \\sum_{i=1}^{N} \\pi_i(b_{i,t}) \\quad \\text{s.t.} \\;\\; \\sum_i b_{i,t} \\le B_t,\\;\\; b_{i,t} \\in \\mathcal{F}_{i,t},\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:3.106em;vertical-align:-1.2777em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop op-limits\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.4306em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.3479em;margin-left:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathbf mtight\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2963em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.357em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.0714em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.5em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size3 size1 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.143em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop\">max\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8522em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop op-limits\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.8283em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-1.8723em;margin-left:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.05em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel mtight\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.05em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop op-symbol large-op\">∑\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-4.3em;margin-left:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.05em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.109em;\">N\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.2777em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">π\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:1em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord text\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">s.t.\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop op-limits\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.05em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-1.8723em;margin-left:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.05em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.05em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop op-symbol large-op\">∑\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.2777em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">≤\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9805em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0502em;\">B\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0502em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">∈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9694em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathcal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0993em;\">F\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0993em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1510,1097,1511,1514,1515,1518,1519,1521,1522,939],{},[1069,1512],{"html":1513,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>B\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">B_t\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0502em;\">B\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0502em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is the daily portfolio cap and ",[1069,1516],{"html":1517,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"script\">F\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\mathcal{F}_{i,t}\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9694em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathcal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0993em;\">F\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0993em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct mtight\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," encodes per-campaign feasibility — minimum-budget floors, learning-phase freezes, stability windows, action-count caps, and ROAS guardrails. The exact composition of ",[1069,1520],{"html":1517,"display":-1}," is part of the proprietary specification and is documented internally ",[932,1523],{"n":1013},[925,1525,1526,1527,1530],{},"Under interior optimality, the first-order conditions give the ",[928,1528,1529],{},"equal-marginal-profit"," characterisation:",[1069,1532],{"html":1533,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">∂\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>π\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">∂\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∗\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>μ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∗\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003Cmspace width=\"1em\"\u002F>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">∀\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"script\">A\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\frac{\\partial \\pi_i}{\\partial b_i}(b_i^*) \\;=\\; \\mu^* \\quad \\forall i \\in \\mathcal{A}_t,\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.2074em;vertical-align:-0.836em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.3714em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.314em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\" style=\"margin-right:0.0556em;\">∂\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.23em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\" style=\"margin-right:0.0556em;\">∂\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">π\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.836em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7387em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.453em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">∗\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.247em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9331em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">μ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7387em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">∗\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:1em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">∀\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">∈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathcal\">A\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1535,1097,1536,1539,1540,1543,1544,1546],{},[1069,1537],{"html":1538,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>μ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∗\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\mu^*\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8831em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">μ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.6887em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">∗\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is the shadow price on the budget constraint and ",[1069,1541],{"html":1542,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"script\">A\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\mathcal{A}_t\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathcal\">A\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is the set of campaigns not on a binding feasibility constraint. The shadow price ",[1069,1545],{"html":1538,"display":-1}," has a clean economic interpretation as the marginal contribution of the next portfolio dollar; making this object visible to the seller is itself a non-trivial improvement over the heuristic baseline.",[941,1548],{},[944,1550,857],{"id":856},[925,1552,1553],{},"The methodology underlying DataGlass draws from four bodies of literature.",[925,1555,1556,1560,1561,1563,1564,1567,1568,1571,1572,1575,1576,967,1578,1580,1581,1583,1584,1586,1587,1589],{},[1557,1558,1559],"strong",{},"Response curve modelling."," The Hill saturation function originates in pharmacometrics ",[932,1562],{"n":1265}," and has become standard in modern marketing-mix modelling through Google's Robyn framework ",[932,1565],{"n":1566},"11"," and Meta's Meridian system. The Michaelis–Menten form is a special case (",[1069,1569],{"html":1570,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\theta = 1\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>","); the power-law is the small-budget limit. Naik and Raman ",[932,1573],{"n":1574},"18"," extend these to multimedia synergies. Over-dispersed click counts are handled via the Negative Binomial (NB2) parameterisation ",[932,1577],{"n":1481},[932,1579],{"n":1484},", with overdispersion testing in the spirit of Dean ",[932,1582],{"n":1262},". Conversion rates are modelled as Beta–Binomial with utilisation-dependent dilution ",[932,1585],{"n":1329},". Richardson et al. ",[932,1588],{"n":1000}," provide foundational click-through rate prediction work for the cold-start regime.",[925,1591,1592,1595,1596,1598,1599,1601,1602,1605],{},[1557,1593,1594],{},"Constrained optimisation and bandits-with-knapsacks."," Under budget constraints, the problem falls within the Bandits-with-Knapsacks (BwK) framework ",[932,1597],{"n":1330},", where regret scales with the optimum-to-budget ratio. Heymann et al. ",[932,1600],{"n":1003}," study Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandits for portfolio allocation. Dynamic regret under non-stationarity follows Besbes et al. ",[932,1603],{"n":1604},"26"," with bound",[1069,1607],{"html":1608,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>R\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmi>O\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext> ⁣\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo fence=\"true\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>K\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>V\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u002F\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmn>3\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmn>2\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u002F\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmn>3\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003Cmo fence=\"true\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">R_T \\;=\\; O\\!\\left( (K V_T)^{1\u002F3} T^{2\u002F3} \\right),\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0077em;\">R\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3283em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.8em;vertical-align:-0.65em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">O\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:-0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"minner\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen delimcenter\" style=\"top:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"delimsizing size2\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0715em;\">K\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">V\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3283em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.938em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">1\u002F3\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.938em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">2\u002F3\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose delimcenter\" style=\"top:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"delimsizing size2\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1610,1097,1611,1614,1615,1618,1619,1622,1623,967,1626,1629],{},[1069,1612],{"html":1613,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>V\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">V_T\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">V\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3283em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is the path variation; Chen et al. ",[932,1616],{"n":1617},"27"," sharpen this to ",[1069,1620],{"html":1621,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmover accent=\"true\">\u003Cmi>O\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>~\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmover>\u003Cmtext> ⁣\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo fence=\"true\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsqrt>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>V\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>res\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsqrt>\u003Cmo fence=\"true\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\tilde O\\!\\left( \\sqrt{V_T^{\\text{res}} T} \\right)\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.2803em;vertical-align:-0.3601em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord accent\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.9202em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">O\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.6023em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"accent-body\" style=\"left:-0.1667em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">~\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:-0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"minner\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen delimcenter\" style=\"top:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"delimsizing size1\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord sqrt\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8799em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"svg-align\" style=\"top:-3.2em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.2em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\" style=\"padding-left:1em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">V\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.6462em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4065em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.0448em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">res\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2935em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.8399em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.2em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"hide-tail\" style=\"min-width:1.02em;height:1.28em;\">\u003Csvg xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F2000\u002Fsvg\" width=\"400em\" height=\"1.28em\" viewBox=\"0 0 400000 1296\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMinYMin slice\">\u003Cpath d=\"M263,681c0.7,0,18,39.7,52,119\nc34,79.3,68.167,158.7,102.5,238c34.3,79.3,51.8,119.3,52.5,120\nc340,-704.7,510.7,-1060.3,512,-1067\nl0 -0\nc4.7,-7.3,11,-11,19,-11\nH40000v40H1012.3\ns-271.3,567,-271.3,567c-38.7,80.7,-84,175,-136,283c-52,108,-89.167,185.3,-111.5,232\nc-22.3,46.7,-33.8,70.3,-34.5,71c-4.7,4.7,-12.3,7,-23,7s-12,-1,-12,-1\ns-109,-253,-109,-253c-72.7,-168,-109.3,-252,-110,-252c-10.7,8,-22,16.7,-34,26\nc-22,17.3,-33.3,26,-34,26s-26,-26,-26,-26s76,-59,76,-59s76,-60,76,-60z\nM1001 80h400000v40h-400000z\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsvg>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3601em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose delimcenter\" style=\"top:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"delimsizing size1\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," when conditioning on side information. Balseiro et al. ",[932,1624],{"n":1625},"28",[932,1627],{"n":1628},"29"," develop dual mirror descent for online allocation with simultaneous regret and constraint-violation guarantees, directly relevant to the per-campaign ROI constraint in our setting.",[925,1631,1632,1635,1636,1639,1640,1642,1643,967,1646,1649,1650,1653,1654,1657],{},[1557,1633,1634],{},"Exploration under uncertainty."," Thompson Sampling achieves regret ",[1069,1637],{"html":1638,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>O\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>N\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsqrt>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>log\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>⁡\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsqrt>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">O(N\\sqrt{T \\log T})\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.085em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">O\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.109em;\">N\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord sqrt\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.835em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"svg-align\" style=\"top:-3em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\" style=\"padding-left:0.833em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop\">lo\u003Cspan style=\"margin-right:0.0139em;\">g\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.795em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"hide-tail\" style=\"min-width:0.853em;height:1.08em;\">\u003Csvg xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F2000\u002Fsvg\" width=\"400em\" height=\"1.08em\" viewBox=\"0 0 400000 1080\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMinYMin slice\">\u003Cpath d=\"M95,702\nc-2.7,0,-7.17,-2.7,-13.5,-8c-5.8,-5.3,-9.5,-10,-9.5,-14\nc0,-2,0.3,-3.3,1,-4c1.3,-2.7,23.83,-20.7,67.5,-54\nc44.2,-33.3,65.8,-50.3,66.5,-51c1.3,-1.3,3,-2,5,-2c4.7,0,8.7,3.3,12,10\ns173,378,173,378c0.7,0,35.3,-71,104,-213c68.7,-142,137.5,-285,206.5,-429\nc69,-144,104.5,-217.7,106.5,-221\nl0 -0\nc5.3,-9.3,12,-14,20,-14\nH400000v40H845.2724\ns-225.272,467,-225.272,467s-235,486,-235,486c-2.7,4.7,-9,7,-19,7\nc-6,0,-10,-1,-12,-3s-194,-422,-194,-422s-65,47,-65,47z\nM834 80h400000v40h-400000z\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fsvg>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.205em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," in multi-armed bandits ",[932,1641],{"n":1331}," and is empirically superior under delayed feedback and model misspecification ",[932,1644],{"n":1645},"31",[932,1647],{"n":1648},"32",". Ouyang et al. ",[932,1651],{"n":1652},"33"," extend Thompson Sampling to unknown MDPs; Jauvion et al. ",[932,1655],{"n":1656},"34"," deploy it for header bidding in supply-side platforms with demonstrated production-level gains over UCB.",[925,1659,1660,1663,1664,1667,1668,1671],{},[1557,1661,1662],{},"Changepoint detection."," CUSUM is the classical online-detection procedure ",[932,1665],{"n":1666},"19"," with well-understood average-run-length (ARL) properties ",[932,1669],{"n":1670},"24",". The recursion is",[1069,1673],{"html":1674,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>S\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmi>max\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>⁡\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext> ⁣\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo fence=\"true\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>0\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>S\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>1\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>+\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>e\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>−\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmfrac>\u003Cmi>h\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmn>2\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003Cmi>σ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmfrac>\u003Cmo fence=\"true\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmspace width=\"2em\"\u002F>\u003Cmtext>alarm at \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>S\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>>\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>h\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">S_t \\;=\\; \\max\\!\\left( 0,\\; S_{t-1} + e_t - \\frac{h}{2\\sigma} \\right), \\qquad \\text{alarm at } S_t > h,\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0576em;\">S\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0576em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.4em;vertical-align:-0.95em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop\">max\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:-0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"minner\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen delimcenter\" style=\"top:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"delimsizing size3\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">0\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0576em;\">S\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3011em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0576em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2083em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">+\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">e\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mbin\">−\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2222em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mopen nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mfrac\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.3714em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.314em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">σ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.23em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"frac-line\" style=\"border-bottom-width:0.04em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.677em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">h\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.686em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose nulldelimiter\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose delimcenter\" style=\"top:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"delimsizing size3\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:2em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord text\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">alarm at \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0576em;\">S\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0576em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">h\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1676,1097,1677,1680,1681,1684,1685,1687,1688,1691,1692,988],{},[1069,1678],{"html":1679,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>e\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">e_t\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">e\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is the standardised residual and ",[1069,1682],{"html":1683,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>h\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">h\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">h\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is calibrated to a target ARL via Siegmund's approximation ",[932,1686],{"n":1670},". Modern alternatives include Bayesian online changepoint detection ",[932,1689],{"n":1690},"35"," and the kernel-based methods surveyed in Aminikhanghahi and Cook ",[932,1693],{"n":1694},"36",[925,1696,1697,1700,1701,1704,1705,1707,1708,1711,1712,1715],{},[1557,1698,1699],{},"Causal identification."," Gordon et al. ",[932,1702],{"n":1703},"37"," establish the gold standard of randomised experiments for advertising measurement; Lewis and Rao ",[932,1706],{"n":1117}," document the unfavourable signal-to-noise economics of observational measurement. Oster ",[932,1709],{"n":1710},"38"," provides sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounding. Brodersen et al. ",[932,1713],{"n":1714},"39"," develop Bayesian structural time-series for causal impact. DataGlass combines first-differencing, prospective randomised perturbation, and Oster-style sensitivity analysis [1, §VIII].",[941,1717],{},[944,1719,860],{"id":859},[925,1721,1722,1723,1725],{},"We describe the system at the highest level consistent with the rigour required by an academic communication. Proprietary tuning parameters, the precise constraint composition, the perturbation-experiment design, and the segment-specific defaults are not disclosed here; they are documented in ",[932,1724],{"n":938},"–:blog-cite and in the production engineering specifications.",[1041,1727,864],{"id":863},[925,1729,1730,1731,1733,1734,1737,1738,1741,1742,1744],{},"For each campaign ",[1069,1732],{"html":1465,"display":-1},", DataGlass maintains a posterior distribution over ",[1069,1735],{"html":1736,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>λ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>max\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>⁡\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>K\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>θ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>q\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">(\\lambda_i^{\\max}, K_i, \\theta_i, q_i, k_i)\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0087em;vertical-align:-0.2587em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">λ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.6644em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4413em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mop mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">a\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">x\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2587em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0715em;\">K\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0715em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0278em;\">θ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0359em;\">q\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0315em;\">k\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0315em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",", where ",[1069,1739],{"html":1740,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>k\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">k_i\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0315em;\">k\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0315em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is the NB2 dispersion parameter. The click model uses Negative-Binomial likelihood with Hill saturation; the conversion model uses Beta-Binomial likelihood with utilisation-dependent dilution. Estimation is two-stage with ridge stabilisation on the click stage and conjugate updates on the conversion stage; standard errors are propagated using a Murphy-Topel correction ",[932,1743],{"n":1332}," whose factorised form is exact in our setting because the two stages condition on disjoint sufficient statistics [1, §VI].",[925,1746,1747,1748,1751,1752,1755,1756,1759],{},"A key design choice is the ",[928,1749,1750],{},"conditional Hill upgrade",": the saturating curve is fitted only when the campaign's recent budget range satisfies ",[1069,1753],{"html":1754,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>max\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>⁡\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"normal\">\u002F\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>min\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>⁡\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>>\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>2\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">b_{\\max}\u002Fb_{\\min} > 2\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.1514em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mop mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">a\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">x\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u002F\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3175em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mop mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">m\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mtight\">n\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," and effective sample size exceeds an identifiability threshold [1, §VI.B]; otherwise, a more conservative parametric form is used. This directly addresses the structural-and-practical-identifiability concerns raised in Raue et al. ",[932,1757],{"n":1758},"41"," and avoids the systematic over-fit that occurs when nonlinear saturation parameters are estimated on insufficiently variable data.",[1041,1761,867],{"id":866},[925,1763,1764,1765,1266],{},"Given the posterior, the optimiser solves the program of Section 4. The active-set structure is exploited by reducing the problem to a one-dimensional search on the shadow price ",[1069,1766],{"html":1767,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>μ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\mu\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">μ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[1069,1769],{"html":1770,"display":1088},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex-display\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\" display=\"block\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>μ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∗\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmi>μ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmtext>such that\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmunder>\u003Cmo>∑\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∈\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi mathvariant=\"script\">A\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>μ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmunder>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∗\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>μ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmtext>  \u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>B\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>t\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\mu^* \\;=\\; \\mu \\;\\;\\text{such that}\\;\\; \\sum_{i \\in \\mathcal{A}(\\mu)} b_i^*(\\mu) \\;=\\; B_t,\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.9331em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">μ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7387em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">∗\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:2.566em;vertical-align:-1.516em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">μ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord text\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">such that\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop op-limits\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.05em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-1.809em;margin-left:0em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.05em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel mtight\">∈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathcal mtight\">A\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen mtight\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">μ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose mtight\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:3.05em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop op-symbol large-op\">∑\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:1.516em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.7387em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.453em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">∗\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.247em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">μ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0502em;\">B\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2806em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0502em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">t\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",[925,1772,1773,1774,1777],{},"solved by bisection. Implicit differentiation of ",[1069,1775],{"html":1776,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsubsup>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∗\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsubsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>μ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>∗\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">b_i^*(\\mu^*)\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:1.0087em;vertical-align:-0.2587em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.6887em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.4413em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">∗\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2587em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">μ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.6887em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mbin mtight\">∗\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," with respect to the posterior parameters propagates uncertainty into the recommended budgets, so every output is accompanied by a credible interval rather than a point estimate. The full constraint composition, the action-count cap, and the tie-breaking rules among simultaneously binding constraints are not documented here. The applied analogue — translating the shadow-price view into seller-facing operating actions — is illustrated in the ads-optimisation solution surface.",[1041,1779,870],{"id":869},[925,1781,1782,1783,1785,1786,1788,1789,1791,1792,1795],{},"Three mechanisms operate jointly. Thompson Sampling provides principled exploration with the regret bound of ",[932,1784],{"n":1331}," specialised to the budget-constrained setting following Balseiro et al. ",[932,1787],{"n":1628},". CUSUM-based changepoint detection on per-campaign residuals fires when the response curve has shifted, with thresholds calibrated to a target ARL via ",[932,1790],{"n":1670}," and an internal calibration table [1, §VII.B]. A three-layer regime detector — calendar-aware, multivariate Hotelling ",[1069,1793],{"html":1794,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsup>\u003Cmi>T\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmn>2\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmsup>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">T^2\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.8141em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.1389em;\">T\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.8141em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",", and exogenous event log — votes on the day-level operating mode (aggressive, cautious, exploratory, hold).",[1041,1797,873],{"id":872},[925,1799,1800,1801,1803],{},"To prevent the system from learning a confounded budget-response relation, DataGlass applies first-differencing for slow-moving confounders and runs prospective randomised perturbation experiments — small, calibrated, deliberately randomised budget shocks — that generate clean identifying variation in the neighbourhood of the current operating point. Following ",[932,1802],{"n":1703},", this is the gold-standard mechanism for causal estimation; the perturbation magnitude, schedule, and the procedure for folding the resulting evidence back into the posterior are part of the system's confidential calibration.",[941,1805],{},[944,1807,876],{"id":875},[925,1809,1810],{},"Three points deserve emphasis.",[925,1812,1813,1814,1816,1817,1820,1821,1824],{},"First, the empirical advantage of DataGlass over the manual baseline is ",[928,1815,1147],{}," primarily a function of model expressiveness. The Hill function, the Negative Binomial, and the Beta-Binomial are textbook components. The advantage comes from (i) modelling the ",[928,1818,1819],{},"correct"," objective — true profit-adjusted contribution rather than reported ROAS — and (ii) respecting the platform-induced constraint structure, in particular the cost of bid churn under learning-phase mechanics. A naive deep-RL system that ignored these constraints could easily produce worse production behaviour than a well-disciplined manual operator, despite richer function approximation. This is consistent with the ablation findings of Liu et al. ",[932,1822],{"n":1823},"42"," for real-time bidding.",[925,1826,1827],{},"Second, the system's value to the seller is monotone in the gap between reported and true ROAS. Sellers in low-margin, high-return-rate categories benefit disproportionately because their break-even reported ROAS is far above what the dashboard suggests, and the manual baseline mis-prices their portfolio most severely. Sellers in high-margin, low-return categories see smaller — though still material — lifts.",[925,1829,1830,1831,988],{},"Third, the methodology described here generalises beyond the specific platform on which the system was originally deployed. The interface — daily budget plus target ROAS, with platform-side opaque auto-bidding — is now the dominant pattern across major marketplaces (Shopee, Lazada, TikTok Shop, Amazon Sponsored Products, Walmart Connect, Mercado Libre Ads). A system that treats this interface as a first-class modelling object — rather than as an inconvenience to be wrapped around a generic ad-tech stack — has a structural, not incidental, advantage. The full taxonomy of seller decisions a unified decision layer covers — including pricing, inventory, promotions, and personalisation — is documented in ",[1198,1832,1834],{"href":1833},"\u002Fblog\u002Fdecision-intelligence-playbook-for-e-commerce","the decision-intelligence playbook",[941,1836],{},[944,1838,879],{"id":878},[925,1840,1841],{},"Several limitations are explicitly acknowledged in [1, §XI] and [5, §11].",[925,1843,1844,1845,1848,1849,1852,1853,1856,1857,1860,1861,1864],{},"The Hill function is identifiable only when budget ranges are sufficiently wide and effective sample sizes exceed a calibrated threshold; below this threshold the system falls back to a more conservative parametric form, with a corresponding reduction in expected lift. Broad-attribution weighting (currently ",[1069,1846],{"html":1847,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>α\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmtext>broad\u003C\u002Fmtext>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmn>0.5\u003C\u002Fmn>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\alpha_{\\text{broad}} = 0.5\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\" style=\"margin-right:0.0037em;\">α\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3361em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord text mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mtight\">broad\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mrel\">=\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.2778em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.6444em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">0.5\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>",") is heuristic and a candidate for replacement by an attribution-window-aware model. Target-ROAS confounding is partially addressed via covariate inclusion; full treatment requires a joint optimisation of budget ",[928,1850,1851],{},"and"," target ROAS, planned for v2.0. Daily aggregation is a v1.0 limitation; intra-day allocation is in development. Campaign cannibalisation is detected but not yet adjusted in the optimiser, with the v1.1 extension formalising the joint penalty ",[1069,1854],{"html":1855,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>π\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmo>+\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmi>j\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">(\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo separator=\"true\">,\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>b\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>j\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo stretchy=\"false\">)\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmo>=\u003C\u002Fmo>\u003Cmsub>\u003Cmi>π\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003Cmi>i\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmsub>\u003Cmo 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style=\"margin-right:0.0572em;\">j\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan 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style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mop\">min\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mopen\">(\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\">i\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.15em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mpunct\">,\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mspace\" style=\"margin-right:0.1667em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">b\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"msupsub\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.3117em;\">\u003Cspan style=\"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;\">\u003Cspan class=\"pstrut\" style=\"height:2.7em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight\">\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal mtight\" style=\"margin-right:0.0572em;\">j\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-s\">​\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"vlist-r\">\u003Cspan class=\"vlist\" style=\"height:0.2861em;\">\u003Cspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mclose\">)\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," where ",[1069,1858],{"html":1859,"display":-1},"\u003Cspan class=\"katex\">\u003Cspan class=\"katex-mathml\">\u003Cmath xmlns=\"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML\">\u003Csemantics>\u003Cmrow>\u003Cmi>κ\u003C\u002Fmi>\u003C\u002Fmrow>\u003Cannotation encoding=\"application\u002Fx-tex\">\\kappa\u003C\u002Fannotation>\u003C\u002Fsemantics>\u003C\u002Fmath>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u003Cspan class=\"base\">\u003Cspan class=\"strut\" style=\"height:0.4306em;\">\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan class=\"mord mathnormal\">κ\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>"," is estimated from the negative partial correlation ",[932,1862],{"n":1863},"43",". Ad-group level allocation is planned for v2.0.",[925,1866,1867],{},"The system's worst empirical performance occurs under regime shifts that are simultaneously global (affecting many campaigns) and unannounced (no calendar or event-log signal). The three-layer regime detector reduces but does not eliminate this risk; a more aggressive multivariate detector is in research.",[925,1869,1870,1871,988],{},"For the canonical specification of the sample frame underlying every \"in our data\" claim across the DataGlass research corpus — sample size, time window, exclusions, attribution windows — see the ",[1198,1872,1874],{"href":1873},"\u002Fblog\u002Fmethodology","DataGlass research methodology",[941,1876],{},[944,1878,882],{"id":881},[925,1880,1881,1882,988],{},"The DataGlass decision-intelligence system replaces the dominant family of manual ad-budget heuristics — trial-and-error reallocation, rolling-mean extrapolation, and intuition-driven bid edits — with a coherent Bayesian decision pipeline that respects the platform constraints under which marketplace sellers actually operate. We have shown analytically that the manual baseline is biased in identifiable, structural ways: it confuses reported with true ROAS, average with marginal return, attributed with un-lagged signal, and unconstrained with constraint-feasible action. We have summarised the methodological foundations of the replacement system and reported empirical validation showing 18–24% portfolio-profit improvements with reduced reallocation frequency. The proprietary calibration that distinguishes the production system from a textbook implementation is deliberately withheld; the academic content is documented in the companion peer-reviewed manuscript ",[932,1883],{"n":934},[925,1885,1886,1887,1890],{},"For sellers, the implication is direct: a system that targets the correct objective on the correct constraint set captures contribution that is otherwise structurally unavailable to manual operation. For the field, the implication is that ",[928,1888,1889],{},"interface-aware"," decision intelligence — taking the platform's API surface seriously as a modelling object — is now the binding research frontier in marketplace advertising.",[941,1892],{},[944,1894,885],{"id":884},[925,1896,1897,1898,1900,1901,967,1904,1907],{},"The authors thank the DataGlass research team for the proposal series ",[932,1899],{"n":938},"–:blog-cite, the peer-review committees ",[932,1902],{"n":1903},"44",[932,1905],{"n":1906},"45"," for substantive feedback that shaped Revisions 1 through 3, and the participating Shopee sellers for consenting to the live A\u002FB deployment.",[941,1909],{},[944,1911,888],{"id":887},[1041,1913,892],{"id":891},[1041,1915,895],{"id":894},[1041,1917,898],{"id":897},[1041,1919,901],{"id":900},[1041,1921,904],{"id":903},[1041,1923,907],{"id":906},[1041,1925,910],{"id":909},[1041,1927,913],{"id":912},[1041,1929,916],{"id":915},[1041,1931,919],{"id":918},[1041,1933,922],{"id":921},[941,1935],{},[925,1937,1938],{},[928,1939,1940,1941,988],{},"DataGlass is a research-led decision-intelligence platform for e-commerce sellers. For partnership, integration, or research-collaboration enquiries, contact the authors directly. The peer-reviewed account of the methodology is forthcoming ",[932,1942],{"n":934},[1944,1945,1946,1952,1959,1960,1961,1967,1968,1969,1970,1971],{"id":812,"depth":313,"text":813},{"id":815,"depth":313,"text":816},{"id":818,"depth":313,"text":819,"children":1947},[1948,1949,1950,1951],{"id":822,"depth":308,"text":823},{"id":825,"depth":308,"text":826},{"id":828,"depth":308,"text":829},{"id":831,"depth":308,"text":832},{"id":834,"depth":313,"text":835,"children":1953},[1954,1955,1956,1957,1958],{"id":838,"depth":308,"text":839},{"id":841,"depth":308,"text":842},{"id":844,"depth":308,"text":845},{"id":847,"depth":308,"text":848},{"id":850,"depth":308,"text":851},{"id":853,"depth":313,"text":854},{"id":856,"depth":313,"text":857},{"id":859,"depth":313,"text":860,"children":1962},[1963,1964,1965,1966],{"id":863,"depth":308,"text":864},{"id":866,"depth":308,"text":867},{"id":869,"depth":308,"text":870},{"id":872,"depth":308,"text":873},{"id":875,"depth":313,"text":876},{"id":878,"depth":313,"text":879},{"id":881,"depth":313,"text":882},{"id":884,"depth":313,"text":885},{"id":887,"depth":313,"text":888,"children":1972},[1973,1974,1975,1976,1977,1978,1979,1980,1981,1982,1983],{"id":891,"depth":308,"text":892},{"id":894,"depth":308,"text":895},{"id":897,"depth":308,"text":898},{"id":900,"depth":308,"text":901},{"id":903,"depth":308,"text":904},{"id":906,"depth":308,"text":907},{"id":909,"depth":308,"text":910},{"id":912,"depth":308,"text":913},{"id":915,"depth":308,"text":916},{"id":918,"depth":308,"text":919},{"id":921,"depth":308,"text":922},{"id":1985,"title":33,"blog":1986,"body":2024,"customers":295,"description":2029,"draft":294,"draftReason":295,"extension":657,"glossary":295,"industry":295,"meta":2030,"navigation":294,"ogImage":2031,"path":34,"research":295,"robots":295,"schemaOrg":295,"seo":2032,"showcase":294,"sitemap":2033,"stem":2034,"__hash__":2035},"pages_en\u002Fblog.md",{"emptyLabel":1987,"labels":1988,"indexLabels":1993,"listenLabels":2004,"indexCta":2017,"ctaButtons":2020},"No posts match yet. Try another category or a shorter search.",{"tldr":1989,"published":1990,"updated":1991,"related":1992},"In short","Published","Updated","Keep reading",{"categories":1994,"sort":1995,"newest":1996,"oldest":1997,"grid":1998,"list":1999,"loadMore":2000,"results":2001,"result":2002,"clearSearch":2003},"Categories","Sort","Newest first","Oldest first","Grid view","List view","Load more","{n} results for “{q}”","1 result for “{q}”","Clear search",{"listen":2005,"loading":2006,"play":2007,"pause":2008,"back":2009,"forward":2010,"speed":2011,"seek":2012,"player":2013,"close":2014,"follow":2015,"of":2016},"Listen to article","Loading…","Play audio of this article","Pause audio","Back 15 seconds","Forward 15 seconds","Playback speed","Seek","Audio player","Pause audio and close player","Follow the text","{a} of {b}",{"headline":2018,"subline":2019},"Turn every post into a decision","See the numbers behind these notes for your own shops, with a demo on your data.",{"primaryCta":2021,"secondaryCta":2022},{"label":57,"to":58},{"label":2023,"to":28},"See pricing",{"type":2025,"value":2026,"toc":2027},"minimark",[],{"title":809,"searchDepth":308,"depth":308,"links":2028},[],"Notes on profit, pricing and ads for sellers on Shopee, Lazada and TikTok Shop, with the numbers behind them.",{},{"component":33},{"title":33,"description":2029},{"loc":34},"blog","VuN4_Knpp3IpkJqH-kRoXag4vgoPV2p71ZFiR-VpgzQ",[2037,2039,2040,2042,2044,2046,2048],{"slug":338,"label":2038},"Profit",{"slug":350,"label":27},{"slug":291,"label":2041},"Ads",{"slug":327,"label":2043},"Operations",{"slug":430,"label":2045},"Market",{"slug":408,"label":2047},"Data Science",{"slug":307,"label":48},{"id":2050,"categories":2051,"domain":2058,"extension":5,"fallback":2059,"home":2062,"industry":2071,"meta":2076,"pricing":2077,"stem":2089,"__hash__":2090},"og_en\u002Fen\u002Fog.yml",[2052,2053,2054,2055,2056,2057],{"slug":338,"label":2038},{"slug":350,"label":27},{"slug":291,"label":2041},{"slug":327,"label":2043},{"slug":408,"label":2047},{"slug":307,"label":48},"dataglasslabs.com",{"title":2060,"description":2061},"DataGlass","The decision engine for Shopee, Lazada and TikTok Shop sellers.",{"chart":2063,"metrics":2064},"Net profit, last 30 days",[2065,2068],{"label":2066,"value":2067},"Net profit","฿1.24M",{"label":2069,"value":2070},"Profit ROAS","3.4x",{"axis":2072,"point":2073},"Ad spend",{"label":2074,"value":2075},"Next baht still pays","+฿0.42",{},{"plans":2078},[2079,2083,2086],{"name":2080,"price":2081,"period":2082},"Free","฿0","\u002Fmonth",{"name":2084,"price":2085,"period":2082},"Standard","฿1,499",{"name":2087,"price":2088,"period":2082},"Pro","฿2,499","en\u002Fog","63L8y4Lv8I2q3NvR26fMXU1sE9Wd7TZaz2l_tV6oZuo",[],1792784876188]